A War That Keeps Expanding
As Operation Epic Fury enters its fourth week, the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has taken a dramatic and dangerous turn. Israel has announced it will seize control of southern Lebanon all the way to the Litani River, effectively opening a second front in the war. Meanwhile, Iran fired waves of missiles at Tel Aviv on Tuesday — including a new type of warhead never before seen in the conflict — while Israel struck central Tehran overnight in a massive retaliatory campaign.
The developments come just hours after President Donald Trump claimed “very good and productive” talks had taken place with Iran and postponed his threatened strikes on Iranian power plants for five days. Iran flatly denies any negotiations have occurred.
Tel Aviv Under Fire: Iran Deploys New Missile Type
Air raid sirens wailed across Tel Aviv on Tuesday morning as Iranian missiles slammed into Israel’s largest city in a rare daytime barrage. Gaping holes were torn through a multi-story apartment building, and Israel’s Fire and Rescue Service reported searching for civilians trapped in the rubble.
According to Colonel Miki David of the Israeli military, one of the strikes involved an Iranian missile carrying a warhead of approximately 100 kilograms (220 pounds) — described as “something we have not yet encountered in the war.” The new weapon suggests Iran is adapting its arsenal even as the IDF claims to have destroyed or rendered inaccessible roughly 330 of Iran’s estimated 470 ballistic missile launchers.
At least four casualties were reported in central Israel, with search and rescue operations ongoing at multiple sites. The Israeli military urged the public to stay away from impact areas as emergency teams worked through the destruction.
This marks at least the fourth major wave of Iranian missile strikes targeting Israeli population centers since the war began on February 28.
Israel Strikes Central Tehran
The missile exchange was not one-sided. Israel’s military confirmed that its fighter jets carried out a large wave of strikes in central Tehran on Monday night, targeting key command centers including facilities associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ intelligence arm and the Intelligence Ministry.
The IDF said it struck more than 50 targets overnight, including ballistic missile storage and launch sites. Air defense systems were activated across Tehran as explosions were heard simultaneously in several areas of the Iranian capital, according to Iranian news agency Nournews.
Two energy facilities in Isfahan were also hit, including a gas administration building and a gas pressure reduction station. A gas pipeline for the Khorramshahr power plant in southwestern Iran was targeted as well, though local officials said the projectile struck outside the station with no casualties.
Israel Opens Second Front: Seizure of South Lebanon
In what may be the most consequential development of the day, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the IDF will take control of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River — approximately 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the Israeli border.
“All five bridges over the Litani that were used by Hezbollah for the passage of terrorists and weapons have been blown up, and the IDF will control the rest of the bridges and the security zone up to the Litani,” Katz said during a visit to a military command center.
The announcement follows Israel’s destruction of the key Qasmiyeh Bridge over the weekend — which Lebanese President Joseph Aoun described as a “prelude to ground invasion.” Over one million Lebanese civilians have been displaced since Israel renewed military operations against Hezbollah on March 2.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich went even further, calling for the outright annexation of southern Lebanon. “The new Israeli border must be the Litani,” Smotrich declared in a radio interview, arguing the bombardment “needs to end with a different reality entirely.”
The scale of the humanitarian crisis is staggering. The International Rescue Committee reports thousands sleeping in the open, on streets, in tents, or in cars, while overcrowded shelters lack clean water and sanitation. At least 1,039 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since March 2, including 79 women and 118 children.
Trump’s Five-Day Gambit: Postponed Strikes and Phantom Talks
President Trump’s dramatic pivot on Monday sent shockwaves through global markets. After threatening over the weekend to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, Trump abruptly reversed course.
“We’re doing a five-day period. We’ll see how that goes, and if it goes well, we’re going to end up with settling this,” Trump told reporters. “Otherwise, we’ll keep bombing our little hearts out.”
Trump claimed there were “15 major points of agreement” between the U.S. and Iran, and that envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner had held talks with an Iranian leader on Sunday. He told CNN the discussions covered a “complete and total resolution of hostilities.”
Iran’s response? Categorical denial. Iran’s foreign ministry called the claims “fake news” designed to “manipulate” oil markets. Iran’s embassy in South Africa posted a mocking image on social media: a child’s pink steering wheel placed on a car dashboard in front of the passenger seat — apparently ridiculing Trump’s idea of jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz with Iran’s supreme leader.
Share prices rallied and oil prices dropped sharply below $100 a barrel on the news — before the Tel Aviv missile strikes sent markets reeling again.
Pakistan Enters the Fray as Mediator
Pakistan has emerged as the latest potential mediator, with four sources telling NBC News that the country is actively working as a go-between. Two sources said an in-person meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives could be held in Islamabad this week.
A diplomatic source said Pakistan is “well poised to play an active role” in discussions to end the war, which has killed more than 2,000 people and displaced millions. A Gulf official confirmed Pakistan had been passing messages between the two countries for the past two days.
Pakistan joins Turkey and Egypt in mediation efforts, though none have yet produced concrete results.
Germany Breaks Ranks: ‘Breach of International Law’
In a remarkable departure from Western solidarity, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier publicly called the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran a “breach of international law.”
“The rift is too deep and the trust in American power politics has been lost, not only among our allies but worldwide,” Steinmeier said at an event marking the 75th anniversary of the German foreign ministry. “Our foreign policy does not become any more convincing simply because we do not call a breach of international law a breach of international law.”
The statement, while coming from a largely ceremonial office, signals growing unease among America’s European allies about the direction of the conflict.
The Bigger Picture: Energy Crisis and Escalation Risks
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with daily oil exports from the Middle East down at least 60 percent since the war began. The IEA chief has described the energy crunch as worse than the 1970s oil crises and the Ukraine war combined.
The U.S. Treasury issued a short-term waiver allowing the sale of approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian oil already in transit — a move designed to ease global supply pressure without lifting sanctions.
Senator Ted Cruz, meanwhile, praised the military operation as the “largest naval defeat, the most ships sunk since World War II,” and called for the outright collapse of the Iranian regime.
Reports from the Times of Israel suggest that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are “inching toward” joining the fight against Iran — a development that, if confirmed, would dramatically reshape the conflict.
What Comes Next
The next five days will be critical. Trump’s self-imposed deadline on energy infrastructure strikes creates a narrow window for diplomacy — but Iran’s continued missile barrages, categorical denial of talks, and Israel’s expansion into Lebanon suggest the conflict is escalating, not winding down.
With over 8,000 U.S. combat flights flown, additional F-16Cs, EA-18G Growlers, and E-2D Hawkeyes deploying to the region, the USS Boxer amphibious ready group en route, and rumors of the 82nd Airborne Division on alert, Operation Epic Fury shows no signs of slowing.
The question facing the world on Day 25 of this war isn’t whether peace talks will succeed — it’s whether the conflict can be contained before it consumes the entire Middle East.