A War That Keeps Getting Bigger
One month ago, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury with a devastating wave of airstrikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and shattered military installations across the Islamic Republic. The goal was swift, decisive victory.
Thirty days later, the war is doing the opposite of winding down.
In a single 48-hour stretch over the weekend, the conflict exploded in every direction: Yemen’s Houthi rebels formally entered the war with missile barrages against Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the expansion of Israel’s ground invasion of southern Lebanon, a US Air Force AWACS surveillance aircraft was destroyed by an Iranian strike on a Saudi air base, and 2,500 US Marines landed in the Middle East with thousands more on the way.
Meanwhile, regional diplomats gathered in Pakistan for a desperate push to open direct US-Iran talks before the situation spirals further out of control.
This is no longer a two-party air campaign. This is a multi-front regional war.
Houthis Enter the Fight and a Second Strait Is Now Threatened
Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels waded into the conflict on Saturday with their first confirmed missile launch at Israel since the current war began. The Israeli Defense Forces said they intercepted a ballistic missile originating from Yemen.
But the Houthis were not done. Military spokesperson Yahya Saree appeared on television to announce a second wave, a barrage of cruise missiles and drones targeting key Israeli military sites. Saree vowed the attacks would continue until Israel ceases its attacks and aggression.
The Houthi entry is significant beyond the immediate military threat. Iran’s proxy in Yemen controls territory overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea through which roughly 12 percent of global trade passes. With Iran already squeezing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil flows, the Houthi escalation means two of the world’s most critical shipping lanes are now active conflict zones.
Defense analysts warn this could compound the already severe disruptions to global energy and supply chains that have sent oil prices soaring and rattled markets worldwide since the war began.
Netanyahu Expands Lebanon Invasion
In a video statement from Israel’s Northern Command on Sunday, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced he had ordered the military to further expand the existing security zone in southern Lebanon.
We are determined to fundamentally change the situation in the north, Netanyahu declared, framing the move as strengthening Israel’s security along its northern frontier against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group.
Israel has been conducting operations in Lebanon since early March, when Hezbollah joined the war in solidarity with Iran. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the IDF has struck more than 2,000 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon, including approximately 120 headquarters, over 100 weapons depots, and 130 rocket launchers. More than 570 Hezbollah fighters have reportedly been killed.
But the human toll extends far beyond combatants. Lebanon’s health ministry reported more than 1,110 people killed in the country since the fighting began. The expansion order has fueled fears of a long-term Israeli military occupation of southern Lebanon, a haunting echo of Israel’s 18-year occupation that ended in 2000.
France, Canada, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement expressing grave concern at the violence in Lebanon and calling for immediate de-escalation.
AWACS Destroyed, 15 Americans Wounded at Saudi Base
In one of the most significant direct hits on American military assets in the war, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, wounding at least 15 US service members and destroying a US Air Force E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft.
The AWACS, an Airborne Warning and Control System plane, is a critical airborne surveillance and command platform used to coordinate air traffic and battlefield management. Images verified by AFP staff and posted on social media on March 29 showed the charred remains of the aircraft on the tarmac.
The strike represents a significant Iranian capability demonstration, hitting a heavily defended US base housing advanced air defense systems. It also marks an escalation in Iran’s willingness to directly target American personnel and high-value equipment.
According to Fox News, the attack involved a combination of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, suggesting Iran’s forces are growing more sophisticated in their strike packages even as the US-led coalition has struck over 9,000 targets since Operation Epic Fury began.
2,500 Marines Land With Thousands More Coming
The USS Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group arrived in the Middle East on Saturday carrying approximately 3,500 sailors and Marines, including about 1,200 ground combat troops from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and Marine Corps F-35B stealth fighter jets.
The deployment is just the beginning of a major force surge. According to military sources:
- A second amphibious group carrying roughly 2,500 additional Marines is en route
- Elements of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division are preparing to deploy
- A third aircraft carrier strike group is expected to join the two already in the region
- The Pentagon is weighing sending up to 10,000 additional troops total
The arrival of Marines trained in amphibious landings has set off alarm bells in Tehran. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, issued a fiery warning: Iranian forces are waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground to set them on fire and punish their regional partners forever.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushed back on Friday, saying the US expects the war to conclude in a matter of weeks, not months, and that American forces are already ahead of schedule.
Diplomatic Scramble in Pakistan
As the war expands militarily, a parallel diplomatic track is struggling to gain traction. Foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt met in Islamabad on Sunday, notably without US or Israeli participation, in an effort to broker direct talks between Washington and Tehran.
Egypt’s foreign minister Badr Abdelatty said the meetings aim to open direct dialogue between the US and Iran, which have communicated almost exclusively through mediators. The ministers are expected to reconvene on Monday.
The US reportedly offered Iran a 15-point action list as a framework for potential peace talks. Iran rejected it. But in a potentially significant countermove, Tehran’s state broadcaster Press TV reported last week that Iran had drafted its own five-point counterproposal, reportedly calling for:
- A halt to the targeted killing of Iranian officials
- Guarantees against future attacks
- Reparations for war damage
- Iran’s sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz
- Unspecified additional security guarantees
Iran’s parliament speaker dismissed the Pakistan talks as diplomatic cover for military escalation, pointing to the arrival of the Marines as evidence.
By the Numbers: One Month of War
As Operation Epic Fury completes its first month, the scale of the conflict is staggering:
- 3,000+ people killed across all theaters of the war
- 1,900+ killed in Iran alone, according to the Iranian Red Crescent (including 200+ children)
- 1,110+ killed in Lebanon
- 50+ killed in Gulf states
- 16+ killed in Israel from Iranian attacks
- 9,000+ targets struck by US-led forces
- 2,000+ Hezbollah sites destroyed in Lebanon
The economic impact has been severe. The Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control, with Tehran reportedly collecting tolls from commercial ships, an extraordinary turn of events given that the IRGC is designated as a terrorist organization by the US and EU. Oil prices remain at elevated levels, and Qatar’s energy minister has warned that if the war continues, Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports entirely.
What Comes Next
The war that was supposed to be swift and decisive is instead spreading. Each new front, Lebanon, Yemen, the Saudi base attacks, adds layers of complexity and escalation risk.
The big question now: Will the diplomatic track in Pakistan gain enough traction to halt the spiral before US ground troops engage directly? Iran says it is ready for that fight. The Marines are in position. And the Houthis have opened yet another front.
One month in, Operation Epic Fury faces what Reuters bluntly called only hard choices, and the hardest ones may still lie ahead.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as the situation evolves.