Iran’s War Spreads Beyond Israel — Gulf Arab States Under Fire
As Operation Epic Fury grinds into its 12th day, the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has metastasized into something far larger than anyone predicted. What began on February 28 as precision strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and military infrastructure has now engulfed the entire Persian Gulf region, with Iranian missiles and drones raining down on some of America’s closest allies in the Middle East.
Missile sirens wailed across Dubai and Bahrain early Tuesday morning. Saudi Arabia confirmed it had intercepted incoming Iranian projectiles. Kuwait warned residents near military installations to seek shelter. The war is no longer confined to Iranian soil — it’s everywhere.
Dubai Under Siege: Airport Hit, High-Rise Struck by Drone Debris
The United Arab Emirates — a country that spent decades building itself into a global business and tourism hub — is now paying the heaviest price among Iran’s neighbors. An Iranian drone struck near a terminal at Dubai International Airport over the weekend, sending black smoke billowing across the city’s skyline. That same night, debris from another intercepted drone slammed into a high-rise tower in the Marina district.
UAE oil production has dropped by an estimated 500,000 to 800,000 barrels per day as Iranian strikes target energy infrastructure. The massive Ruwais Industrial Complex — one of the world’s largest integrated refining and petrochemical facilities — was hit by a suspected drone strike, triggering fires that took hours to contain.
Across the Gulf, at least 12 civilians have been killed in Iranian attacks on the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain, according to tracking by the New York Times. Iran’s foreign ministry has offered an almost surreal defense: spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told CNBC that Iran feels “no hostility” toward Gulf nations, claiming the strikes target only “U.S. military bases, facilities, and installations in the region.”
Tell that to the residents of Dubai Marina.
The Numbers After 11 Days: 5,000 Targets, 140 Wounded, $9 Billion Spent
The Pentagon released its most comprehensive accounting of the war on Tuesday. The numbers are staggering:
- 5,000+ targets struck inside Iran since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28
- 140 U.S. service members wounded, with eight suffering severe injuries
- Seven American soldiers killed in the first 11 days of combat
- Iran’s ballistic missile capability down 90% and drone attacks reduced by 85%, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt
- Over 1,300 Iranians killed and roughly 10,000 injured, per Iranian health officials
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Tuesday would be “our most intense day of strikes inside Iran,” adding bluntly: “Iran stands alone, and they are badly losing on Day 10 of Operation Epic Fury.”
But the administration’s messaging has been anything but consistent. President Trump suggested Monday the war could end “very soon” and might be “short-term” — then officials walked it back. Trump also falsely claimed Iran has access to U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles. Press Secretary Leavitt declined to explain the discrepancy.
Strait of Hormuz: The World’s Most Dangerous Chokepoint
Perhaps the most consequential battleground isn’t on land at all — it’s the 21-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes daily.
Iran has effectively shut the strait. The IRGC attacked at least 10 commercial vessels attempting to transit in the early days of the crisis. On March 2, a senior IRGC official confirmed the strait was closed and threatened any ship that tried to pass.
The U.S. response has been aggressive. CENTCOM announced it “eliminated” 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the strait. Trump personally boasted about destroying 10 “inactive mine-laying vessels,” warning more would follow. The Pentagon is now weighing plans for a convoy escort operation — dubbed “Operation Epic Escort” — to force commercial shipping through under military protection.
But so far, Trump’s $20 billion reinsurance scheme to coax tankers back through the strait has failed. Shipping traffic remains down roughly 70%, and Lloyd’s List reports that shadow fleet ships now account for half of all Hormuz transits — a sign that only the most risk-tolerant operators are willing to run the gauntlet.
Global Energy Crisis Goes from Bad to Worse
The ripple effects are hitting hard and fast. Oil prices surged to four-year highs before pulling back slightly after Trump’s “very soon” comments. But the damage to global energy supply chains is already severe:
- India is experiencing an acute LPG crisis — hotels and restaurants across major cities have shuttered kitchens after commercial LPG supplies were suspended. Long queues have formed at gas stations in Kolkata and Bengaluru.
- Bahrain’s Bapco refinery — hit by an Iranian strike on March 9 — declared force majeure, sending markets into turmoil.
- Qatar has warned that gas exports could be “cut off within weeks” if Iranian strikes on its infrastructure continue.
- Iraq’s oil production has collapsed with the Strait blocked.
Analysts warn that $200-per-barrel oil is no longer a fringe scenario — it’s a real possibility if the strait remains closed and Gulf production continues to be degraded.
In a twist that underscores the war’s contradictions, Iran itself is still shipping millions of barrels of oil to China through the very strait it claims to have closed. Shadow tankers loaded with Iranian crude continue to make the passage, highlighting that Tehran’s “closure” is selective — aimed at Western-aligned shipping while keeping its own revenue lifeline to Beijing intact.
New Supreme Leader Wounded but ‘Safe’
Iran’s internal politics have added another layer of chaos. After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial February 28 strikes, Iran’s Assembly of Experts moved quickly to install his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader.
But Mojtaba himself has reportedly been injured in subsequent strikes. Iran’s president’s son stated publicly that the new supreme leader is “safe” despite war injuries — a claim that has done little to calm speculation about the regime’s stability.
Trump reacted to the appointment with characteristic bluntness: “Not happy.” The administration had explicitly stated that regime change was among Operation Epic Fury’s objectives, and the seamless transfer of power within the Khamenei family appears to have frustrated that goal.
Meanwhile, Iran’s police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan issued a chilling warning on state TV: anyone who takes to the streets “at the enemy’s request” will be “confronted as an enemy, not a protester.” Security forces, he said, are stationed in the streets “day and night.”
UN Security Council Moves Toward Vote
The international community is scrambling to respond. A draft UN Security Council resolution — sponsored by Gulf Cooperation Council members — condemns Iran’s attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan. It calls for an immediate end to all strikes and threats against neighboring states.
A vote has been scheduled for Wednesday afternoon, according to three diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity. It would be the first Security Council resolution considered since the war began.
Whether it passes — or is vetoed by the United States or Russia — will signal where the international community stands as this conflict enters its third week with no ceasefire in sight.
What Comes Next
Day 12 of Operation Epic Fury dawns with the war wider, costlier, and more unpredictable than at any point since it began. The U.S. has devastated Iran’s military capabilities — missile launches are down 90%, drone production facilities in Isfahan have been destroyed, and the IRGC’s Quds Force headquarters in Tehran has been struck.
But Iran is fighting back asymmetrically, turning the entire Gulf into a war zone and weaponizing the global energy supply chain. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Gulf allies are taking damage they never signed up for. And the administration in Washington can’t seem to decide whether the war is ending “very soon” or entering its most intense phase yet.
The only thing that’s certain: this is far from over.