Trump Eyes Bold Gambit: Occupy Kharg Island to Break Iran’s Hormuz Blockade
As Operation Epic Fury enters its third week, the Trump administration is actively considering one of the most dramatic escalations yet in the Iran war: seizing or blockading Iran’s Kharg Island — the tiny coral outpost through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow.
According to an exclusive report by Axios published early Friday morning, four sources with direct knowledge of the deliberations confirmed the White House is weighing the move as leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that’s going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that’s going to happen. But that decision hasn’t been made,” a senior administration official told Axios.
A second senior official added: “We’ve always had boots on the ground in conflicts under every president, including Trump. I know this is a fixation in the media, and I get the politics, but the president is going to do what’s right.”
The five-mile-long island sits just 16 miles off Iran’s mainland coast in the Persian Gulf and represents the jugular vein of Iran’s petroleum economy. U.S. forces bombed the island’s military installations last week — destroying over 90 military sites including naval mine storage facilities and missile bunkers — but deliberately left the oil export infrastructure intact.
F-35 Stealth Fighter Hit by Iranian Air Defenses
In what may prove to be a defining moment of the air campaign, an Air Force F-35A Lightning II was forced to make an emergency landing at a U.S. air base on March 19 after being struck by Iranian ground fire during a combat mission over Iran.
According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, the pilot landed safely and is in stable condition. The incident is under investigation by U.S. Central Command.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released video purporting to show the moment the $80 million stealth fighter was targeted and struck by an Iranian air defense system at approximately 2:50 a.m. local time. The IRGC claimed it “severely damaged” the aircraft.
The revelation is significant because the F-35’s stealth technology is designed to evade radar detection. However, Iran has developed air defense systems using passive infrared sensors — technology that homes in on heat rather than radar signatures. This approach previously proved effective when Iranian-backed Houthi rebels employed similar systems in Yemen.
The F-35 is now one of approximately 20 U.S. Air Force aircraft known to be damaged or destroyed since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. Other losses include three F-15E Strike Eagles shot down in a friendly fire incident involving Kuwaiti fighters, a KC-135 Stratotanker crash in western Iraq that killed all six airmen aboard, and roughly a dozen MQ-9 Reaper drones lost to various causes.
Why Kharg Island Is the Most Dangerous Decision of the War
Defense analysts are raising serious alarms about the Kharg Island gambit. Lynette Nusbacher, a former British Army intelligence officer, warns that destroying or seizing the island’s export infrastructure “runs the risk of causing an economy-shaping increase in oil price that would not drop rapidly.” The complex infrastructure could take years to repair.
There’s also a deeper strategic concern. “Kharg Island is sufficiently important to the Iranian economy that destroying its facilities would abandon any pretence of fighting a war to create a brighter future for Iran,” Nusbacher argues, because it would deny any successor regime vital oil income.
Neil Quilliam of the Chatham House think tank warned that a U.S. seizure would be “self-defeating.” He explained: “If the US were to seize it, then you are separating the Iranian oil industry. Iran would have production but couldn’t export, while the US wouldn’t be able to produce. That would set markets in a tailspin; that’s a real standoff.”
Given the island’s size, any occupation effort would require a substantial and sustained military operation — far beyond a typical special forces raid. This has fueled growing debate about whether the conflict is creeping toward a ground war.
Oil Markets Roil as Energy War Escalates
The energy dimension of the conflict continues to hammer global markets. Oil prices surged to $119 a barrel on Wednesday — up nearly 10% in a single session — before settling at $108.65 on Thursday as the Trump administration sought to calm markets.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes, has been effectively blocked since Iran began attacking commercial shipping in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes. The closure has triggered a cascading energy crisis felt from Asian fuel pumps to European gas bills — Vietnam alone reported a 20% spike in fuel costs this week.
The energy war escalated dramatically earlier this week when Israel struck Iran’s massive South Pars gas field — which Iran shares with Qatar — provoking Iranian retaliatory strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas complex. QatarEnergy reported that the attacks reduced the country’s liquefied natural gas export capacity by 17%, causing “extensive damage” that could cut annual revenues by $20 billion and take up to five years to repair.
Even as nations under the International Energy Agency have pledged to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, oil continues to trade well above pre-war levels, with Brent crude hovering around $103 per barrel.
IRGC Defiant: ‘We’re Still Building Missiles’
In a notable show of defiance on Friday, the spokesman for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps insisted that Tehran is still manufacturing missiles — directly contradicting claims made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just hours earlier.
Netanyahu declared Thursday that Iran is being “decimated” and that the Islamic Republic no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles. “It is unclear who is in charge” in Tehran, Netanyahu said, while cautioning there is “no schedule” for when the war will end.
The IRGC’s counter-claim came as Iran’s missile launch rates have visibly declined since early March, with analysts attributing the slowdown to depleted missile and launcher stockpiles as well as a deliberate strategy of rationing remaining weapons.
Meanwhile, Iranian authorities arrested dozens of individuals across multiple provinces on March 18 and 19 for allegedly spying for Israel — a sign of growing internal paranoia within the regime as the war grinds on.
Regional Fallout: Saudi Intercepts, Lebanon Bleeds
The war’s ripple effects continue to spread across the Middle East. On March 20, Saudi Arabia intercepted a missile over its northern Al Jouf region, adding to the growing list of Gulf states forced to defend themselves against Iranian fire.
Israel’s strikes on the IRGC Navy headquarters in Tehran on March 16 and five Iranian Navy missile boats in the Caspian Sea on March 18 marked new milestones — the first time the Caspian Sea has been a theater of operations in this conflict.
The killing of Basij militia commander Gholamreza Soleimani and intelligence minister Esmail Khatib represented the highest-level assassinations since the early days of the war, further decapitating Iran’s command structure.
In Lebanon, the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has escalated into what’s now being called the 2026 Lebanon war. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported 1,001 people killed — including 118 children — by Israeli attacks since March 2.
What Comes Next
As the war enters its fourth week, the Pentagon is weighing military reinforcements that could provide Trump with additional options for expanding operations, according to Reuters. The $200 billion supplemental defense funding request — which Trump called a “small price to pay” — signals the administration is preparing for a prolonged campaign.
Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi traveled to Washington to discuss securing the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring how this Middle Eastern conflict has become a global crisis touching every continent’s economy.
The Kharg Island decision may prove to be the pivot point. If Trump orders an occupation, it could trigger an entirely new phase of the war — one involving ground troops, sustained urban-style combat, and the potential for Iran to unleash its remaining retaliatory capability against energy infrastructure across the entire Persian Gulf.
The world is watching. The clock is ticking. And the most consequential decision of the Iran war may be just days away.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as the situation evolves.