The Iran war has now triggered what many analysts are calling the worst global energy crisis since the 1973 Arab oil embargo — and it’s forcing the Trump administration into moves that would have been unthinkable just weeks ago.
On Thursday night, President Donald Trump temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil currently at sea, issuing a 30-day Treasury Department waiver that allows Russian crude and petroleum products to be shipped to buyers worldwide. The move came as Brent crude smashed through the $100-per-barrel barrier for the first time since 2022, driven by Iran’s escalating blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows daily.
It’s Day 14 of Operation Epic Fury, and while U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue to pound Iranian military targets across ten provinces, the economic shockwaves are now hitting harder than the bombs.
Trump’s Russia Gambit: Desperation or Strategy?
The decision to ease Russian oil sanctions represents a stunning reversal. For years, the West maintained strict sanctions on Russian energy exports — including a price cap on Russian crude and a crackdown on Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of unmarked tankers used to evade restrictions. Those sanctions were a cornerstone of Western pressure on Moscow over the Ukraine invasion.
Now, with the Iran war choking global oil supplies, Trump has effectively torn up that playbook.
According to the New York Times, the Treasury Department license permits the sale of Russian crude and petroleum products loaded on vessels through April 11. The Washington Post reported that the move followed a phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which the two leaders discussed ways to stabilize global energy markets.
“I do worry that this is effectively the destruction of the oil sanctions on Russia,” said Edward Fishman, author of Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, speaking to the Times.
Critics were even more blunt. Bill Browder, the former Moscow-based financier who spearheaded sanctions campaigns against corrupt Russian officials, told the BBC the move was “a terrible decision that will enrich Putin and prolong the war in Ukraine.”
Sky News called it a “victory for Putin” — and it’s hard to argue otherwise. Russian crude has surged from roughly $40 per barrel to over $100 in just twelve days. Forbes reported that the 30-day waiver may never actually expire, given the structural damage the Iran crisis is doing to the global sanctions architecture.
Oil At $100: Why The IEA’s Record Release Isn’t Enough
The Trump administration isn’t the only one scrambling. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency announced the largest coordinated oil reserve release in history — 400 million barrels from 32 member nations. It was the first such coordinated action since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
It didn’t work.
Brent crude closed Thursday at $100 per barrel, up sharply despite the massive reserve commitment. Markets simply aren’t buying that emergency stockpiles can replace the roughly 20 million barrels per day that normally transit the Strait of Hormuz.
And the reason is simple: Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has made it crystal clear the strait is staying closed.
In his first major public address since assuming power following the killing of his father Ali Khamenei in the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, the younger Khamenei declared the Hormuz blockade a “tool to pressure the enemy” and vowed revenge for Iran’s “martyrs.”
Ali Larijani, Iran’s security chief, echoed the sentiment on X (formerly Twitter): “While starting a war is easy, it cannot be won with a few tweets.”
The IRGC has backed up the rhetoric with action. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have declared they will not allow “one litre of oil” to be exported from the Middle East as long as U.S. and Israeli attacks continue. Multiple merchant vessels have been struck in and around the strait. Iran has begun laying naval mines in the waterway, according to American officials cited by the New York Times, and is using small boats to enforce the closure after the U.S. military claimed to have destroyed much of Iran’s conventional navy.
CBS News reported that this asymmetric approach explains why U.S. warships have not entered the Strait of Hormuz or escorted commercial vessels through — even as Trump publicly claims Iran’s navy has been “decimated.”
KC-135 Crash Confirmed: 4 American Crew Dead
The economic chaos arrived alongside more grim military news. The Pentagon confirmed Friday morning that four of six crew members aboard a KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft were killed when the plane crashed in western Iraq on Thursday.
U.S. Central Command stated the crash was “not a result of hostile or friendly fire,” describing it as a mid-air incident in friendly airspace. A second aircraft involved in the incident made an emergency landing at Ben Gurion Airport in Israel after broadcasting a 7700 squawk code — the international emergency signal.
The KC-135 was supporting Operation Epic Fury air operations at the time of the crash. The loss brings the total American military deaths in the conflict to at least 11 since strikes began on February 28.
The incident highlights the immense logistical strain the air campaign is placing on U.S. forces. Operation Epic Fury has now involved over 6,000 airstrikes across Iran, with the Pentagon estimating the first six days alone cost $11.3 billion — a figure that officials acknowledged excludes many costs tied to the broader military buildup.
Iran Strikes Back: Gulf States Under Fire
While the U.S. and Israel continue their air campaign, Iran is expanding its retaliation well beyond Israel. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Iran launched projectiles targeting civilian and oil infrastructure in the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait on March 12 alone.
Hezbollah has claimed 27 separate attacks on Israeli Defense Forces positions in northern Israel in the most recent reporting period. The IDF responded with strikes on Beirut’s Dahiyeh district, warning residents to evacuate — a chilling echo of the 2006 Lebanon War.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu has escalated Israeli rhetoric, directly threatening Iran’s new Supreme Leader and confirming that Israeli strikes killed top Iranian nuclear scientists and destroyed the Parchin weapons facility — a site Israel says was used for “covert nuclear weapon development” experiments.
Iran has consistently denied pursuing nuclear weapons, but the destruction of its nuclear infrastructure was a stated goal of Operation Epic Fury from the outset.
The Global Economic Fallout
The economic consequences are rippling far beyond the Middle East. Gas prices across the United States have surged, with analysts warning of further increases if the Hormuz blockade continues. Stock markets have been rattled by the dual shock of rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
The situation has created what the Guardian described as a cruel irony: the war launched partly to secure American strategic interests is now forcing the U.S. to unwind sanctions on Russia — arguably its most important geopolitical rival — while simultaneously enriching Moscow with record-high oil revenues.
CNBC reported that Iran’s strategy of weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz has effectively created a two-front economic war: one against Iran’s military infrastructure, and another against the global economy itself.
“The question is not whether Russia balances its books this quarter,” Forbes wrote. “The question is whether the sanctions regime — the West’s primary non-military leverage over Moscow — survives the Iran crisis intact.”
What Happens Next?
Day 14 of Operation Epic Fury finds the conflict at a crossroads. Militarily, the U.S. and Israel appear to have devastated Iran’s conventional military capabilities and nuclear infrastructure. But strategically, Iran’s asymmetric response — mines, small boats, missile strikes on Gulf neighbors, and the Hormuz blockade — is inflicting economic damage that no amount of airstrikes can neutralize.
Trump has insisted the war will be “over soon.” Iran’s new leadership has made clear they’re prepared for a long fight.
The 30-day Russian oil waiver expires in early April. The IEA’s emergency reserves are finite. And every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the global economy bleeds.
The bombs may be falling on Iran. But the shockwaves are hitting everywhere.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as the situation evolves.