The War at a Glance: Week 3 of Operation Epic Fury
As the US-Israel military campaign against Iran crosses the two-week mark, the conflict has entered a grinding new phase. Iran’s offensive military capability has been shattered — missiles down 90 percent, drones down 95 percent — but Tehran refuses to bend. The regime is retaliating against Gulf neighbors, threatening global oil supplies, and betting it can outlast American resolve.
On Saturday, President Trump took to social media to call on China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and other nations to send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz “open and safe.” It was a remarkable admission that the world’s most powerful military cannot secure the waterway alone while simultaneously pounding Iran from the air.
Britain responded by saying it was discussing a “range of options” with allies to secure shipping. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, mocked the request, calling it “begging.”
Kharg Island Bombed: Oil War Escalation Looms
The most significant escalation of the past 48 hours came when US forces struck military targets on Kharg Island — the critical terminal handling roughly 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. President Trump said the US “obliterated” military sites on the island and warned that oil infrastructure could be next if Tehran continues interfering with passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker fired back immediately, warning that strikes on the country’s oil infrastructure would “provoke a new level of retaliation.” Iran’s semiofficial Fars News Agency claimed the Kharg strikes caused no damage to oil infrastructure, saying they hit an air defense facility, a naval base, an airport control tower, and an offshore helicopter hangar.
The oil threat is no empty bluff. Iran’s Armed Forces Unified Combatant has officially warned that any attack on Iranian oil and energy infrastructure will trigger retaliatory strikes against “oil, economic and energy infrastructures” belonging to US-allied companies in the region. Crude oil prices have surged more than 25 percent since the start of the conflict, climbing to $119.48 per barrel — the highest in years.
Iran Strikes Back at Gulf Neighbors
Tehran has been firing hundreds of missiles and drones at Arab Gulf neighbors throughout the conflict, though Iran has consistently claimed it was targeting only US assets. The reality on the ground tells a different story — airports, oil fields, and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf have been hit.
The most brazen escalation came on Saturday when Iran urged civilians to evacuate Jebel Ali port in Dubai (the Middle East’s busiest port), Khalifa port in Abu Dhabi, and Fujairah port. Tehran claimed the US had used “ports, docks, and hideouts” in the UAE to launch strikes on Kharg Island, though it provided no evidence.
Hours later, debris from an intercepted Iranian drone hitting an oil facility sparked a fire at Fujairah. Iran also conducted drone attacks targeting Citibank buildings in Dubai and Manama, Bahrain, on March 13 — retaliating for a combined force strike on an Iranian state-run bank days earlier.
Iran’s foreign minister told Western media that Iran responded “in kind” to the strike on a Bank Sepah building. Kuwait reported intercepting five Iranian drones and four ballistic missiles on March 12 alone, with some debris falling in open areas.
Pentagon: Iran’s Military Is Being Systematically Dismantled
Despite Iran’s continued retaliatory strikes, the Pentagon says the regime’s military capability is being methodically destroyed. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated on March 13 that Iranian missile volume is down 90 percent and one-way attack drone volume is down 95 percent since the start of the war.
The numbers from Operation Epic Fury are staggering:
- Over 15,000 Iranian targets struck as of March 13
- More than 50,000 US military personnel supporting the operation
- 60 Iranian naval ships and 30 minelayers damaged or destroyed
- Iran’s entire ballistic missile production capacity functionally destroyed or heavily damaged
- 7 US service members killed in action
The US has also suffered significant losses in the air campaign. A KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq on March 12, killing six airmen. Five additional Air Force refueling planes were struck and damaged on the ground during an Iranian strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. With two KC-135s lost in a midair collision (one crashed, one damaged) and these five damaged in a single 24-hour period, analysts warn the Air Tasking Order may need to be significantly downsized.
New Supreme Leader in a Coma — Iran’s Leadership Vacuum
Adding to the chaos inside Iran is an extraordinary leadership crisis. Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 — the opening strike of the war — the Assembly of Experts hastily elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader on March 9.
But reports from the Daily Mail, citing intelligence sources, suggest Mojtaba Khamenei is in a coma, “unaware there is a war on and has no idea he is supreme leader.” The regime has issued statements in his name, including a public message vowing revenge on the US and Israel, but questions swirl about who is actually making decisions in Tehran.
The leadership vacuum creates a dangerous uncertainty. With no clear chain of command, different factions within the Iranian military and IRGC may be operating semi-independently — which could explain the sometimes erratic pattern of retaliatory strikes.
Trump Aides Clash Over Exit Strategy
Back in Washington, Reuters reported on March 13 that Trump administration officials are privately divided over how to end the conflict. With “war exit elusive,” aides are jockeying to shape the outcome. Trump himself has sent mixed signals — at one point suggesting the conflict may be “short-term” and the operation has achieved its objectives, while also saying the US is “not ready” to make a deal.
Most strikingly, Trump suggested the US could hit Kharg Island again “just for fun” — a comment that drew sharp criticism from diplomatic circles and raised concerns about mission creep.
The deployment of Marines to the Middle East, including an Amphibious Ready Group and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, has fueled speculation about a potential ground component. Meanwhile, Trump temporarily waived sanctions on Russian oil already loaded in tankers for 30 days — a move analysts described as a “big win for Putin” that undercuts the broader strategic messaging of the campaign.
Cultural Heritage Under Fire
The war has also taken a devastating toll on Iran’s cultural heritage. US-Israeli strikes have damaged dozens of historical and cultural sites, which Iran’s deputy foreign minister called “an assault on part of Iran’s civilizational identity.”
In Isfahan, Israeli airstrikes damaged some of Iran’s most treasured cultural landmarks, including the iconic Naqsh-e Jahan Square, Chehel Sotoun palace, Ali Qapu, the Shah Mosque, and the Jameh Mosque. Tehran’s historic Golestan Palace — a UNESCO World Heritage Site — suffered damage from shockwaves and debris, with crystal chandeliers shattered and wooden doors torn from their frames. The ancient Falak-ol-Aflak Castle, marked with a blue shield emblem signifying cultural protection, was also hit.
The damage to UNESCO sites has drawn international condemnation and comparisons to the destruction of cultural heritage in Iraq and Syria during previous conflicts.
What Comes Next?
As Operation Epic Fury enters its third week, the strategic picture is one of devastating US-Israeli military superiority on paper — but growing complications on the ground. Iran’s military is being systematically degraded, but the regime shows no signs of capitulating. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to US-allied shipping, oil prices continue climbing, and the conflict is spreading to involve Gulf states, Iraq, and Lebanon.
The key questions for Week 3:
- Will the US actually strike Iran’s oil infrastructure, triggering an even wider energy crisis?
- Can the air campaign sustain its tempo with the refueler fleet degraded?
- Will allied nations answer Trump’s call and send warships to the Strait?
- Who is actually running Iran — and can anyone negotiate a ceasefire?
One thing is clear: the “short-term” war Trump initially envisioned is looking anything but.