Trump Claims Victory — But the War Isn’t Over
As Operation Epic Fury grinds into its third week, President Donald Trump declared from Air Force One on Sunday that Iran’s military has been “decimated” — claiming the United States has wiped out the country’s air defenses, crippled its navy, and reduced its missile and drone capabilities to near-zero.
“There’s no reason to” declare victory yet, Trump told reporters en route from West Palm Beach to Joint Base Andrews on March 15. “I think I’d just say they’re decimated. If we left right now, it would take them ten years and more to rebuild. But I’m still not declaring it over.”
The president’s comments came as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that Iranian missile volume is down 90 percent and one-way attack drone volume is down 95 percent since the start of the war on February 28. But those statistics mask a deepening crisis that is reshaping global energy markets and testing the cohesion of America’s alliances.
Oil Surpasses $100 — Energy Crisis Worsening
For the first time in years, West Texas Intermediate crude oil has surged past the $100-per-barrel mark. On Sunday, WTI was trading at approximately $101.02 a barrel — a direct consequence of Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of military assets on Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal.
The price spike is no abstract number. It translates directly into higher gasoline prices at the pump, elevated costs for airlines and shipping companies, and a potential drag on the global economy that economists warn could tip fragile markets into recession.
CEOs from Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips warned Trump administration officials in meetings at the White House last week that the disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz would continue to create “unpredictability in global energy markets,” the Wall Street Journal reported. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has acknowledged that prices could remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
Trump himself escalated the economic pressure by claiming the U.S. had “totally demolished” military targets on Kharg Island — while warning Tehran that oil infrastructure would be next if Iran continues its blockade of the strait.
The Hormuz Coalition That Isn’t
Perhaps the most consequential development of the weekend has been the conspicuous silence from America’s allies.
President Trump took to Truth Social demanding that the UK, China, France, Japan, South Korea, and other countries send warships to the Strait of Hormuz to “keep the strait open and safe.” He claimed that “many countries” would be joining the effort and threatened NATO with a “very bad future” if allied nations refused to participate.
The reality has been starkly different.
As of Monday morning, no country has publicly committed to deploying warships to the strait. The UK, Japan, China, and South Korea have all said they are “considering their options” without making concrete commitments. France’s defense minister, Catherine Vautrin, explicitly stated that Paris would not send warships while the conflict continues to escalate.
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he had “demanded” about seven countries join the coalition. “There’s been some positive response,” he said — but offered no specifics.
However, there may be movement behind the scenes. The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that the Trump administration plans to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition to escort commercial ships through the narrow waterway. The details remain murky — officials are still debating whether escort operations would begin before or after hostilities end.
France has deployed about a dozen naval vessels, including its aircraft carrier strike group, to the Mediterranean and Red Sea, with potential extension to the Strait of Hormuz. French officials have been consulting with European, Asian, and Gulf Arab states about a plan for warships to eventually escort tankers through the strait, according to Reuters.
The EU foreign affairs meeting in Brussels on Monday is expected to discuss a European response to the Hormuz crisis, with EU officials stating it is “in our interest to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.”
Iran’s New Supreme Leader: Dead, Alive, or Something In Between?
Adding to the fog of war are persistent questions about the status of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei — the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the first day of the war.
Trump dropped a bombshell on Saturday, telling reporters: “I’m hearing that he’s not alive.” He later walked the claim back slightly, saying on Sunday that he believes Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but “damaged.”
Hegseth stated at the Pentagon on Friday that Mojtaba Khamenei was injured and “likely disfigured” in strikes. Reports from multiple outlets suggest that if not dead, Iran’s new supreme leader may be severely wounded and comatose — potentially unaware of the ongoing war or even his own appointment.
The State Department has offered a $10 million reward for information about Mojtaba Khamenei and key IRGC leaders, signaling that U.S. intelligence may not have a definitive answer on his status.
This leadership vacuum raises critical questions: Who is actually commanding Iran’s war effort? Is the IRGC operating autonomously? And does anyone in Tehran have the authority to negotiate a ceasefire?
Russian Drones Confirmed Against U.S. Bases
In a significant escalation with global implications, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN on March 15 that he has seen intelligence that “100 percent” confirms Iran has used Russian-produced Shahed drones “with Russian details” to attack U.S. bases in the Middle East.
The confirmation that Russian-manufactured weapons are being used directly against American forces adds a dangerous new dimension to the conflict. While Russia has supplied Iran with drone technology for years — and Ukraine has been on the receiving end of those same Shahed drones — the direct use against U.S. military installations represents a significant line crossed.
The Gulf Is Burning
Meanwhile, the war continues to rage across the region:
- UAE under attack: The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defense confirmed on Sunday that its air defense systems are actively intercepting Iranian missiles and drones, with explosions heard across the country.
- Iran’s ecocide accusations: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi accused Israel of “ecocide” for striking fuel depots in Tehran, warning that contamination of soil and groundwater could have “generational impacts.”
- Iran’s Space Organization destroyed: Israel-aligned forces destroyed Iran’s main research center for space studies, which included laboratories used for military satellite R&D.
- Law enforcement targets hit: The combined US-Israeli force struck Law Enforcement Command stations in Tehran’s Navab and Enghelab neighborhoods on March 14, targeting institutions central to domestic regime repression.
- KC-135 down in Iraq: CENTCOM announced that a KC-135 refueling aircraft went down in Iraq on March 12 during Operation Epic Fury, with rescue efforts ongoing.
- Baghdad embassy hit again: The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was struck for the second time since the war started.
What Comes Next?
The uncomfortable truth emerging from Week Three of Operation Epic Fury is that military dominance has not translated into strategic resolution.
The U.S. and Israel have undeniably devastated Iran’s conventional military capabilities. But Tehran has leveraged its one trump card — control over the Strait of Hormuz — to create a global economic crisis that is now forcing Washington to beg the very allies it alienated to help clean up the mess.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi has publicly mocked the United States, claiming Washington is “begging” other countries for help. Tehran has signaled it is “open to countries who want to talk about safe passage” through the strait — effectively positioning itself as the gatekeeper of global energy, even as its military infrastructure lies in ruins.
The Washington Post summed up the dilemma: “The U.S. and Israel crippled Iranian forces in two weeks of war, but Tehran’s ability to disrupt oil flows and its uranium stockpile complicate the push to end it.”
As oil executives warn the crisis will worsen, as allies hedge their bets, and as the question of who actually runs Iran goes unanswered — the war that was supposed to be swift and decisive is looking increasingly like a quagmire with a $100-per-barrel price tag.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as the situation evolves.