One week into Operation Epic Fury, the numbers are starting to tell a story that goes far beyond the battlefield. The U.S. military campaign against Iran — launched alongside Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion on February 28 — has already burned through an estimated $3.7 billion in just 100 hours, according to a new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). That works out to roughly $891 million per day.
And with both President Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth signaling this week that the conflict could drag on for weeks, the tab is only getting started.
Breaking Down the Bill: Where $3.7 Billion Went in Four Days
The CSIS breakdown, published on March 5, lays out the costs in three categories — and the picture isn’t pretty for the Pentagon’s already-strained budget.
Munitions replacement accounts for the lion’s share at approximately $3.1 billion. The U.S. has unleashed a massive arsenal against Iranian targets — IRGC command centers, air defense networks, missile launch sites, military airfields, and nuclear-related infrastructure. None of those munitions costs were budgeted.
Operational costs — jet fuel, ship steaming hours, heightened alert levels, extended deployments — come in at roughly $196 million, with about $178 million already covered in the existing defense budget.
Combat losses and infrastructure repair add another estimated $350 million, also completely unbudgeted. Iran’s retaliatory drone and missile strikes have inflicted real damage, including hits on U.S. assets in the region.
The bottom line: of the $3.7 billion spent so far, $3.5 billion was not budgeted. Congress will need to pass either a supplemental appropriation or fold the costs into a reconciliation bill — a political fight that’s already brewing on Capitol Hill.
The Munitions Crisis Nobody’s Talking About
Here’s the number that should alarm Pentagon planners most: the U.S. entered this conflict with a $28.8 billion deficit in munitions stockpiles, according to CSIS analysts. The industrial base was already struggling to replenish stocks drawn down by years of support to Ukraine and Israel.
Now, with Epic Fury consuming precision-guided munitions at a wartime rate, the gap is widening fast. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper noted that U.S. forces have been shifting to “less expensive munitions” where possible — a sign the military is already managing consumption carefully. But in a campaign this intensive, cheaper alternatives only go so far.
Oil Explodes Past $85 as Hormuz Shuts Down
If the direct military cost is staggering, the economic shockwave may be even worse.
On Thursday, March 5, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude surged 8.51% to $81.01 — its highest level since July 2024. Brent crude jumped 4.93% to $85.41 per barrel, marking a fifth straight session of gains. U.S. gasoline futures have spiked 10% since the war began.
The reason is simple: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down.
Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through that narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. With Iranian missiles targeting shipping lanes, naval mines reportedly deployed, and the maritime industry officially designating the Strait, the Gulf of Oman, and the Persian Gulf as a “warlike operations area,” commercial tanker traffic has ground to a halt.
The consequences are cascading:
- Iraq has been forced to shut down nearly 1.5 million barrels per day of crude production — not because of direct attacks, but because it’s running out of storage. Without tankers to carry oil away, there’s nowhere to put it.
- Qatar has shut down its entire liquefied natural gas (LNG) production for the same reason. LNG tankers can’t get through Hormuz.
- Kuwait and the UAE could be next to cut production as their storage capacity fills up, according to analysts and traders.
- European natural gas prices have climbed sharply, with the continent heavily dependent on Gulf LNG imports for heating and electricity.
“There is no movement in the Strait of Hormuz so prices will grind higher,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. “With countries having to shut in production, we will be delayed even longer because you can’t just resume production at full strength. That will be a problem for a while.”
Gas Prices Hit Americans at the Pump
For everyday Americans, the war’s economic impact is already showing up where it hurts most — at the gas station.
U.S. gasoline prices have jumped roughly 10% since February 28, with prices for all 2026 futures contracts rising an average of 6%, according to Reuters. The BBC reported that analysts warn the longer the conflict disrupts energy trade, the broader the inflationary impact — affecting not just fuel but food, shipping costs, and a wide array of consumer products.
President Trump, asked about rising gas prices on Thursday, told Reuters he was “not concerned,” saying the military operation against Iran was his priority. The U.S. Treasury Department, however, is reportedly considering intervention in the oil futures market to combat rising energy prices — a dramatic and unusual step that underscores the severity of the situation.
The War Goes On — And So Does the Spending
On Thursday, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced he would travel to CENTCOM headquarters at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, to meet with Admiral Cooper for updates on the operation. Both Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine have indicated the campaign is “ahead of schedule” but far from over.
The Pentagon’s own fact sheets show the scale of the deployment: more than 50,000 U.S. troops, 200+ fighter aircraft, two aircraft carrier strike groups, and strategic bombers are engaged in operations stretching from “seabed to space and cyberspace,” as Admiral Cooper put it.
Meanwhile, Iran has fired over 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones since February 28, according to Iranian state media. While the Pentagon says Iranian retaliatory capacity is declining — missile launches are down an estimated 90% from initial levels — each incoming threat still costs money to intercept and defend against.
The human cost is mounting too. The Defense Department has released the names of five American service members killed in Iranian attacks, with at least one additional death under investigation.
Congress Clears the Way — But the Bill Is Coming
This week, both the House and Senate voted on war powers resolutions that would have forced Trump to halt operations. Both failed. The Senate vote, backed primarily by Democrats, could not overcome Republican opposition. The House followed suit on Thursday.
That gives the President a political green light to continue — but it doesn’t solve the funding problem. With $3.5 billion in unbudgeted costs already racked up and the conflict potentially lasting weeks, Congress will soon face a supplemental spending request that could dwarf anything seen since the early days of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
For context: Brown University’s Costs of War project estimated that the previous round of U.S. strikes against Iran (in 2025) cost between $2.04 and $2.26 billion total. Operation Epic Fury has already exceeded that figure in its first four days.
The Broader Economic Fallout
Beyond direct military costs and oil prices, the war is sending tremors through the global economy:
- Stock markets have been volatile, with Asian indexes tumbling even as U.S. and UK markets showed some resilience.
- Shipping and insurance costs have skyrocketed for any vessel operating near the Persian Gulf.
- The UK has evacuated 6,500 citizens from the UAE since strikes began, a sign of the regional instability rippling outward.
- The U.S. has temporarily allowed India to purchase Russian oil amid energy supply fears — a remarkable policy concession driven by wartime necessity.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared on March 6 that there is “no reason why we should negotiate with the U.S.,” slamming the door on any near-term diplomatic off-ramp.
What Comes Next
With diplomacy dead, Hormuz paralyzed, and both sides escalating, the economic meter is running at a pace that makes the Iraq War’s early days look modest by comparison. CSIS analysts note that costs should decrease somewhat as the U.S. shifts to cheaper munitions and Iran’s retaliatory capability degrades — but they also warn that any expansion of the conflict, particularly a ground component, would send costs into an entirely different stratosphere.
The war with Iran isn’t just reshaping the Middle East. It’s reshaping the global economy in real time — one $900-million day at a time.