Breaking news: Shell says disruption in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran war could keep global liquefied natural gas trade flat this year, even if shipping flows return to normal within the next three months.
Reuters, via gCaptain, reported Tuesday that Shell’s annual LNG outlook now sees the Hormuz shock as strong enough to erase expected growth in 2026 trade. Shell said the disruption has shut in about one-fifth of global monthly LNG supply since the conflict began.
That is a fresh turn in the Iran crisis because the story is no longer only about whether ships are moving through Hormuz today. It is about whether months of disrupted Gulf energy flows have already changed the year’s LNG balance.
Shell Sees A System-Wide Shock
Shell had previously expected LNG trade to grow after reaching 422 million metric tons in 2025. The company now says the Iran-war disruption could hold trade flat in 2026 if flows recover within three months, with growth expected to resume in 2027.
“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” Cederic Cremers, Shell’s president of integrated gas, said in the report cited by Reuters.
Shell said new supply, stronger regasification capacity, improved performance at existing plants, and slower Asian LNG imports helped limit the damage. Even so, the company said the war disrupted the global LNG outlook, raised prices, damaged Qatar’s export facilities, delayed new supply, and put pressure on price-sensitive Asian buyers.
Asia Takes The Hit
Reuters reported that Asian LNG imports in the first half of 2026 were down nearly 4% from the same period last year, citing Kpler data. Shell said Asian spot LNG prices rose above $20 per million British thermal units at the peak of the Middle East crisis before falling back to $15.35, near a four-month low, as markets hoped for a peace deal.
The important point is that lower prices do not mean the crisis has disappeared. They mean traders are pricing in a possible recovery while still watching Hormuz, Qatar, Asian demand, and the broader U.S.-Iran settlement track.
South and Southeast Asia remain central to the long-term LNG story. Shell still expects global LNG demand to rise about 65% by 2050, with Asia driving much of that growth as countries try to replace coal and meet rising power demand from industry and data centers.
Oil Forecasts Are Moving Too
The LNG shift comes as oil analysts also mark down their Iran-war assumptions. Reuters, via WTVB, reported Tuesday that analysts cut 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, after five straight monthly increases.
The Reuters poll of 31 economists and analysts put Brent crude at an average of $84.50 a barrel in 2026, down from $90.44 last month. U.S. crude was forecast at $79.49, down from $84.63. Analysts cited the reopening of Hormuz and easing fears of prolonged supply disruption, while warning that geopolitical risks still remain.
Hormuz Is Reopening, But The Damage Lingers
UN News reported Tuesday that a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would bring relief, but would not quickly undo higher food and fuel costs in developing countries. The UN Trade and Development agency warned that freight contracts, supply chains, and food systems take longer to adjust than oil shipments.
That makes Shell’s LNG warning part of a wider pattern. Energy markets may be calmer than they were at the height of the crisis, but the Iran war’s impact is still moving through fuel prices, shipping routes, Asian imports, and vulnerable economies.
The immediate question is whether the fragile U.S.-Iran track can keep Hormuz open long enough for normal flows to return. If another shipping incident or diplomatic breakdown interrupts the waterway again, the pressure on LNG and oil forecasts could return quickly.
Sources: Reuters via gCaptain; Reuters via WTVB; UN News.
Featured image: Public domain satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz via Wikimedia Commons.