As Operation Epic Fury enters its third week, two explosive developments are reshaping the conflict: Ukrainian intelligence confirms Russia is now directly arming Iran with Shahed attack drones, and US intelligence assesses the IRGC has effectively taken control of Iran’s war effort as wounded Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains unable to govern.
Russia Crosses the Line: Shahed Drones Now Targeting US Bases
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dropped a bombshell on March 15, telling CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that Ukrainian intelligence “100 percent” confirms Russia has provided Iran with Russian-produced Shahed drones — the same type of weapon Moscow has used relentlessly against Ukraine — and that these drones are now being used to attack American military bases across the Middle East.
“First of all, Russia gave drones already, these Shaheds,” Zelensky stated. He added that Ukrainian intelligence also assesses Russia is sharing targeting intelligence with Iran, marking a dramatic escalation of Moscow’s involvement in the conflict.
The revelation is particularly alarming because Russia began domestically producing Shahed drones in 2023 and has since adapted them with significant upgrades, including equipping the drones with Verba shoulder-fired man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) — giving them the ability to target enemy aircraft. Iran purchased 500 Verba launchers and 2,500 infrared homing missiles from Russia in December 2025, according to the Financial Times.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia’s provision of Shahed drones marks “a notable shift” in Moscow’s support for Tehran. While Russia had previously shared targeting intelligence and advanced drone tactics, this is the first confirmed instance of direct material military support during the conflict.
The IRGC Is ‘Calling the Shots’ — Khamenei Sidelined
Perhaps even more consequential than Russia’s intervention is what’s happening inside Iran’s leadership. CBS News reported on March 15 that the US Government believes the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is now “calling the shots” in Iran, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei too severely wounded to exercise authority.
Khamenei, 56, was injured in the same February 28 airstrike that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with five other family members. Iran initially described his injuries as “light,” but the new leader has not appeared in public, has not delivered any address, and has communicated only through written statements.
CNN reported that intelligence sources indicate Mojtaba suffered a fractured foot and face lacerations during the strike. Israeli intelligence independently assesses that he is injured and that IRGC personnel “are managing” the war effort on his behalf.
Trump himself seemed to confirm the assessment, telling NBC News: “I don’t know if he’s even alive. So far, nobody has been able to show him.” Loyalists published a photograph purportedly showing Khamenei chairing a meeting with IRGC commanders, but analysts noted it could have been AI-generated.
According to Euronews, rumors are circulating among Iranian political insiders that “the apparent difficulty in maintaining regular communication with senior civilian and military officials” has prompted discussions about temporarily restoring a collective leadership structure — a move the IRGC would fiercely resist.
No Ceasefire in Sight — Both Sides Dig In
Despite the mounting destruction, neither Washington nor Tehran appears willing to negotiate. Trump told NBC News on March 14 that “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet.” He added that US forces would step up attacks on Iran’s coastline to clear shipping lanes north of the Strait of Hormuz.
In a characteristic flourish, Trump suggested the US might bomb Kharg Island — Iran’s principal oil export facility — again “just for fun,” after US warplanes struck military installations there on Friday.
But Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi fired back on CBS’s Face the Nation: “We have never asked for a ceasefire, and we have never asked even for negotiations. We are ready to defend ourselves for as long as it takes.”
Iran Fires Sejjil Ballistic Missile at Israel for First Time
In a significant military escalation, IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Majid Mousavi announced on March 15 that Iran launched a Sejjil ballistic missile at Israel for the first time during the current war. The Sejjil is a two-stage, solid-fueled medium-range ballistic missile with a range of approximately 2,000 kilometers — one of the most advanced weapons in Iran’s arsenal.
Iran also continued its barrage against Israel, launching seven missile salvos between March 14-15. An Iranian cluster munition struck an apartment building in Bnei Brak, central Israel, injuring at least one person. Another missile impacted Ramat Gan, also causing injuries. An Iranian missile also struck Ramla, sparking fires.
Israeli military spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Defrin responded with a stark warning: “We still have thousands of targets in Iran, and we are identifying new targets every day.”
Gulf States Under Continued Fire — Kuwait Airport Hit Again
Iran continued to target Gulf countries, with Iranian drones striking Kuwait International Airport and Ali al Salem Airbase, damaging an aircraft shelter. Saudi air defenses intercepted six Iranian ballistic missiles and 32 drones in the same 24-hour period. The Kuwaiti Army detected 14 Iranian drones, intercepting eight while three struck infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Pentagon officials confirmed that Iranian missile volume is down 90 percent and drone volume down 95 percent compared to the start of the war — suggesting the US-Israeli air campaign is systematically degrading Iran’s offensive capabilities. The Pentagon also confirmed sinking 16 Iranian mine-laying ships in the Strait of Hormuz area, though the waterway remains effectively closed to commercial traffic since March 1.
The Strait’s closure has removed approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude oil from global markets, sending fuel prices soaring worldwide. More than 600 ships remain trapped in the region.
Air Campaign Continues Across Iran
The US-Israeli combined force showed no signs of slowing down, striking targets in at least six Iranian provinces on March 15 alone. Key strikes included:
- The 4th Artesh Air Force Tactical Airbase in Dezful, Khuzestan Province
- The 9th Artesh Air Force Tactical Airbase in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province
- Ballistic missile production facilities west of Tehran, near the Malard Missile Launch Site
- An IRGC Navy ammunition depot in Bushehr Province
- IRGC and Basij headquarters in Hamedan City
- Law enforcement headquarters used for regime repression
The targeting pattern reveals a dual strategy: dismantling Iran’s offensive military capabilities while simultaneously degrading the internal security apparatus that the regime uses to suppress its own population.
What Comes Next?
The war is entering its most volatile phase yet. Russia’s direct material support introduces a new great-power dimension to a conflict that was already spiraling beyond the Middle East. The IRGC’s consolidation of power — with or without a functioning Supreme Leader — raises questions about who actually controls Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, its remaining missile stockpiles, and its network of proxy forces.
With Trump refusing to negotiate and Iran vowing to fight indefinitely, the third week of Operation Epic Fury looks set to be the most consequential yet. The Persian New Year, Nowruz, arrives in five days — but there’s little to celebrate in Tehran, where cafes are just beginning to cautiously reopen amid continued airstrikes.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with Trump on Sunday evening about the crisis, while Trump has urged allied nations to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz. So far, Britain, Japan, China, and South Korea have said they are “considering their options” — a diplomatic non-answer that underscores just how isolated Washington’s military campaign has become.
The question now is not whether this war will escalate further — but whether anyone has the power to stop it.
This is a developing story. List25 will continue to provide updates as the situation evolves.