The U.S.-Iran endgame just got messier. Tehran said Monday that negotiators have reached conclusions on many topics in a possible memorandum with Washington, but warned that this does not mean an agreement is close. At nearly the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States has a “pretty solid” proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while warning that Washington will find “another way” if diplomacy fails.
The result is a sharper, more fragile picture than the optimistic deal headlines suggested over the weekend. The public outlines of a possible settlement are taking shape, but both sides are still using pressure language: Iran is stressing that no signature is imminent, while the U.S. is keeping military and economic leverage on the table.
Iran Says Progress Does Not Mean A Deal Is Close
Reuters, carried by U.S. News & World Report, reported that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said conclusions had been reached on many topics in a potential memorandum of understanding with the United States. But Baghaei also said that did not mean Tehran was close to signing an agreement.
Baghaei said Iran is currently negotiating an end to the war, not the nuclear file. He also argued that shifting public positions from U.S. officials have made any agreement harder to lock down. That matters because the emerging framework has repeatedly been described in Washington as a path toward both de-escalation and a later nuclear understanding, while Tehran is now trying to separate the immediate war-ending talks from the nuclear negotiations.
That distinction could become one of the key sticking points. If Iran sees the current talks as a war-ending arrangement first, and Washington sees them as a bridge toward broader nuclear concessions, then both sides may be closer on process than on substance.
Rubio Says A Hormuz Plan Is On The Table
Al Jazeera reported that Rubio, speaking in New Delhi, said the U.S. thought it might have news on a deal soon but cautioned against reading too much into the delay. He said Washington has “a pretty solid thing on the table” regarding Iran’s ability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Rubio also kept the threat of further U.S. action alive. “We’re either going to have a good agreement, or we’re going to have to deal with it another way,” he said, according to Al Jazeera. “We’d prefer to have a good agreement.”
The Strait of Hormuz remains the practical center of the crisis. Al Jazeera reported that Washington and Tehran have observed a ceasefire since April 8 while mediators try to turn that pause into a wider settlement. But Iran has continued blocking the strait to most shipping, and the U.S. has kept its blockade of Iranian ports in place.
The Blockade Is Still Leverage
President Donald Trump said Sunday that the U.S. blockade would remain in force until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. That means the White House is not treating the emerging framework as enough by itself. It wants a completed deal before lifting pressure.
Al Jazeera also reported that a senior Trump administration official said Iran had agreed “in principle” to open the strait and dispose of highly enriched uranium in exchange for the U.S. lifting its naval blockade. But the outlet noted there was no immediate confirmation from Iran, and Baghaei’s comments Monday were noticeably more cautious.
That gap is the story. Publicly, Washington is saying a workable plan exists. Publicly, Tehran is saying parts of the discussion have been resolved, but no agreement is imminent and the nuclear issue is not currently the focus. For shipping firms, oil markets, and U.S. allies, that leaves the crisis suspended between a possible diplomatic off-ramp and another round of escalation.
Why This Is A New Turn
Earlier reporting focused on Trump’s claim that a deal was largely negotiated, the possible reopening of Hormuz, and the political backlash inside Washington. Monday’s development adds a different angle: both governments are now narrowing expectations after a wave of optimism. The negotiations appear real, but the public messaging is turning more defensive.
If the talks hold, the first visible test will likely be Hormuz. A real reopening plan would have to reassure shipowners, insurers, energy buyers, and Gulf states that the ceasefire is more than a pause. If the talks fail, Rubio’s “another way” warning suggests Washington is already preparing to argue that diplomacy was tried and pressure must continue.