As Saudi Tensions With Iran-Backed Houthis Escalate, Mediator Pakistan Faces Pressure to Choose a Side
Pakistan has spent the better part of the last year walking a geopolitical tightrope — acting as Saudi Arabia’s defense partner while quietly serving as a backchannel between Riyadh and Tehran. But as fighting between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen intensifies, that balancing act is becoming nearly impossible to sustain.
Missile and drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities, airports, and cities have grown in both frequency and sophistication, pushing the region closer to a broader war than even Iran’s nuclear ambitions have managed to do. For Islamabad, the escalation forces an uncomfortable question: how long can a country remain neutral when its closest financial ally is under fire?
The answer, according to Pakistani officials, diplomats, and analysts, is — not much longer. But choosing a side carries risks that could destabilize Pakistan from within.
The Conflict Driving Pakistan Into a Corner
The Yemen war pits a Saudi-led military coalition against Houthi forces that Riyadh — and most Western governments — consider proxies for Iran. Tehran denies directing the Houthis, who describe themselves as fighting a defensive war against foreign intervention.
What is not in dispute is the scale and impact of recent Houthi attacks on Saudi territory. Strikes targeting oil production infrastructure, civilian airports, and urban centers have increased in regularity, causing economic disruption and raising the specter of a wider regional conflagration. Pakistani officials told Reuters they are more alarmed by this trajectory than they are by Iran’s nuclear program or its direct missile strikes on Saudi energy facilities — a striking assessment that reveals just how seriously Islamabad views the current escalation.
Saudi Arabia continues to lead its military coalition in Yemen, but it wants more. Specifically, it wants Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Dual Role: Defense Partner and Diplomatic Bridge
For much of the past year, Pakistan has occupied an unusual position in the region’s geopolitics. It is one of Saudi Arabia’s most valued defense partners — providing military training, advisory personnel, and a reliable Sunni Muslim ally with one of the world’s largest armies. At the same time, Pakistan shares a roughly 900-kilometer border with Iran and has invested considerable diplomatic energy in keeping relations with Tehran functional.
This dual role has made Pakistan credible in both capitals. A Western diplomat based in Islamabad put it plainly: Pakistan’s mediation efforts are seen as credible by both sides. That credibility, built over decades, is now the very thing being called into question.
“Pakistan cannot afford to take sides,” a senior Pakistani foreign ministry official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Our policy is to remain neutral and facilitate dialogue.”
That policy has historical roots. In 2019, then-Prime Minister Imran Khan visited both Tehran and Riyadh in a high-profile bid to de-escalate tensions between the two regional powers. The effort reflected Pakistan’s self-image as a bridge — a Sunni-majority nation with deep ties to the Gulf and a pragmatic relationship with Shi’ite-majority Iran.
Saudi Arabia’s Growing Frustration
Saudi Arabia has not been shy about expressing its expectations. Riyadh has repeatedly urged Pakistan to contribute ground troops to its coalition efforts in Yemen. Pakistan has consistently declined, offering training and advisory roles as an alternative. That answer is no longer satisfying Riyadh.
Sources in both capitals told Reuters that Saudi Arabia has recently intensified its calls for more direct Pakistani military support — including boots on the ground. Pakistan’s army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, traveled to Riyadh for talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, where military cooperation sat at the top of the agenda. While the discussions remained private, Pakistani defense sources confirmed that Bajwa reaffirmed Islamabad’s commitment to Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity while stopping short of pledging direct involvement in Yemen.
“The Saudis are frustrated with Pakistan’s fence-sitting,” a Gulf diplomatic source told Reuters. “They believe Pakistan, as a major Muslim military power, should be doing more to support its allies.”
That frustration is backed by considerable financial leverage. Saudi Arabia has provided Pakistan with billions of dollars in economic assistance over the years. In 2018 alone, Riyadh delivered a $6 billion financial package — including a $3 billion loan and deferred payments for oil imports — at a moment when Pakistan’s economy was under severe strain.
“Pakistan is heavily reliant on Saudi economic support,” said Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistani ambassador to the United States and the United Nations. “This makes it very difficult for Islamabad to say no to Riyadh.”
The Iranian Equation — and What It Means at Home
Saying yes to Riyadh, however, could mean saying goodbye to stability on Pakistan’s western frontier. Aligning openly with Saudi Arabia against the Houthis risks alienating Iran in ways that go beyond diplomatic tension.
A breakdown in Pakistan-Iran relations could destabilize a border region that is already among the country’s most volatile. Beyond the geopolitics, the domestic calculus is deeply concerning for Pakistani security planners. Pakistan has a significant Shi’ite Muslim minority, and a history of deadly sectarian violence. Any move that positions Pakistan as a party to what many would view as a Sunni-Shi’ite proxy war could ignite unrest that the country is ill-equipped to absorb.
“Any direct involvement in Yemen would be disastrous for Pakistan,” a former Pakistani diplomat told Reuters. “It would drag us into a sectarian conflict and damage our relations with Iran, which we cannot afford.”
“Our domestic situation is already fragile,” added a Pakistani security analyst. “We cannot afford to import more sectarian conflict.”
This is the bind Pakistan finds itself in: economic survival points toward Saudi Arabia, while geographic and demographic realities point toward caution. Neither path is without serious cost.
Three Paths Forward — None of Them Easy
Analysts see three realistic options available to Pakistan, each with significant trade-offs:
1. Maintain neutrality. Continue resisting pressure to deploy troops to Yemen while providing limited defense support to Saudi Arabia within the Kingdom’s own borders. This is Islamabad’s preferred path, but sustaining it requires diplomatic dexterity that is being tested daily by the escalating conflict.
2. Increase military support to Saudi Arabia. Deploy ground troops or more advanced military assets to directly bolster Saudi defenses against Houthi attacks. This would ease tensions with Riyadh but risks Iranian retaliation, potential border incidents, and a domestic sectarian backlash.
3. Redouble mediation efforts. Invest significant diplomatic capital in reviving dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This option preserves Pakistan’s image as a neutral broker but requires both regional powers to want de-escalation — a condition that currently looks optimistic at best.
“The coming months will be crucial for Pakistan,” Maleeha Lodhi observed. “Its ability to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape will determine its standing in the region.”
What to Watch Next
Observers should track a few key indicators as this situation develops. Any formal announcement of expanded Pakistani military cooperation with Saudi Arabia — beyond its current training mandate — would signal a significant shift in Islamabad’s calculus. Equally telling would be any deterioration in Pakistan-Iran diplomatic exchanges, or the emergence of new mediation initiatives.
Pakistan’s domestic political climate will also play a role. Leaders facing economic pressure at home have historically been more susceptible to Gulf financial influence, which means Islamabad’s fiscal situation could quietly shape a decision with enormous regional consequences.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Pakistan under pressure to choose between Saudi Arabia and Iran?
Pakistan maintains deep economic and defense ties with Saudi Arabia while sharing a long border with Iran. As the Yemen conflict escalates, Saudi Arabia is pressing Pakistan for direct military support, forcing Islamabad to weigh its financial dependence on Riyadh against the risks of alienating Tehran and inflaming domestic sectarian tensions.
Has Pakistan sent troops to fight in Yemen?
No. Pakistan has resisted sending ground troops to Yemen, despite repeated Saudi requests. Its current role is limited to training and advisory support provided to Saudi Arabia within the Kingdom’s borders.
What economic leverage does Saudi Arabia hold over Pakistan?
Saudi Arabia is one of Pakistan’s most important financial backers. In 2018, Riyadh provided a $6 billion package that included a $3 billion loan and deferred oil payments, helping Pakistan manage a severe economic crisis. This dependency gives Saudi Arabia significant influence over Pakistani foreign policy decisions.
What are the risks for Pakistan if it sides with Saudi Arabia?
Aligning with Saudi Arabia could alienate Iran, potentially destabilizing Pakistan’s western border region and stoking sectarian unrest within the country. Pakistan has a significant Shi’ite minority and a history of sectarian violence, making direct involvement in a conflict perceived as a Sunni-Shi’ite proxy war particularly dangerous domestically.
What role has Pakistan historically played in Saudi-Iran tensions?
Pakistan has long sought to act as a mediator between the two regional powers. In 2019, then-Prime Minister Imran Khan visited both Tehran and Riyadh in a bid to reduce tensions. Both sides have traditionally viewed Pakistan’s mediation as credible, though the current escalation is testing that role.
Who are the Houthis?
The Houthis are a Yemeni armed movement that controls significant portions of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa. Saudi Arabia and Western governments describe them as Iranian proxies; Tehran denies this characterization. The Houthis say they are fighting a defensive war against the Saudi-led military coalition that has been active in Yemen since 2015.
—
Pakistan’s position in this conflict is a case study in the impossible choices that middle powers face when great-power rivalries collide with their own borders and bank accounts. Neutrality is Pakistan’s preferred strategy — but neutrality has a price, and that price keeps rising as the missiles keep flying over Saudi Arabia. How Islamabad responds in the weeks and months ahead will shape not just its own regional standing, but the broader contours of Gulf security for years to come.