Oil prices pushed back to the $100-a-barrel mark Tuesday after fresh U.S. strikes in southern Iran shook confidence in the fragile peace process and renewed fears that the Strait of Hormuz crisis could drag on.
TIME reported that global oil prices touched $100 a barrel again Tuesday morning, after Brent had dipped to about $96 the previous day on hopes that a U.S.-Iran deal was nearing. The rebound came after the U.S. military said it carried out new “self-defense” strikes against Iranian targets.
CNBC market data showed ICE Brent crude for July delivery at $100.01, up $3.87, or 4.03%, with a day high of $100.73 and a previous close of $96.14. That move matters because it reverses part of the optimism that followed President Donald Trump’s recent claim that a deal was “largely negotiated.”
The market signal is blunt: traders are no longer pricing the peace track as a clean path to reopening Hormuz. They are pricing a deal process that is still exposed to strikes, retaliation warnings, mine threats and political language fights.
Fresh Strikes Changed the Market Mood
The latest price move followed U.S. Central Command’s account that American forces struck missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines. TIME quoted CENTCOM spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins as saying U.S. forces were continuing to defend themselves “while using restraint during the ongoing cease-fire.”
Al Jazeera reported that the U.S. said the targets included missile sites in southern Iran and boats trying to emplace mines. Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reported loud explosions near Bandar Abbas, the strategic port city close to the Strait of Hormuz.
That location is why the oil market reacted so quickly. Hormuz is not just another regional flashpoint. In normal conditions, roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supply moves through or near that waterway. A threat to the strait becomes a threat to fuel prices, shipping schedules and inflation expectations far outside the Gulf.
Iran Is Warning About Retaliation
TIME reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it reserved the right to retaliate against any actions it considers a violation of the ceasefire. Iranian state-linked reports also said American strikes on Iranian boats killed four Revolutionary Guard troops.
Al Jazeera separately reported that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had shot down an MQ-9 Reaper drone after identifying hostile aircraft entering Iranian airspace. The same report said the IRGC claimed it fired on an RQ-4 drone and an intruding F-35, though those claims had not been independently confirmed in the early reporting.
That leaves the ceasefire in an awkward place. Washington is describing the strikes as defensive and limited. Tehran is describing them as a provocation that can justify retaliation. Markets do not need a formal collapse of talks to react; they only need enough uncertainty to price in higher risk.
The Deal Is Still Not Done
The diplomatic track remains alive, but it is moving slower than the weekend optimism suggested. Al Jazeera reported that Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a potential deal could still “take a few days” because the sides were working through the language of an initial document during talks linked to Qatar.
Rubio also repeated Washington’s core demand on the strait. “The straits need to be open, unimpeded, without tolls,” he said, according to Al Jazeera. He added that Hormuz would be opened “one way or the other.”
That sentence is doing a lot of work. It signals that the U.S. still sees open shipping through Hormuz as non-negotiable, while Iran has used control, toll proposals and military pressure around the strait as leverage in the wider crisis.
Why This Is a New Turn
Earlier coverage centered on falling oil prices as investors hoped a peace agreement could unlock a 30-day Hormuz reopening plan. Tuesday’s move cuts the other way. Oil is back near $100 because the market is now weighing the chance that fresh strikes and retaliation threats could delay or damage that plan.
That does not mean a deal is dead. It means the market no longer believes diplomacy is insulated from events on the water and near Bandar Abbas. Every strike, drone claim, mine warning and toll dispute now feeds directly into the price of energy.
For the White House, the problem is timing. Trump has been selling the public on a deal that can end the war and reopen the strait. But Tuesday’s oil move shows how quickly that narrative can wobble when the ceasefire produces more military action before the paperwork is signed.