Oil prices fell Thursday to levels not seen since before the Iran war, as more commercial vessels began moving through the Strait of Hormuz and energy traders priced in a partial return of Middle East supply.
The drop is a genuine new turn in the crisis. The market is no longer reacting only to ceasefire language or diplomatic promises. It is now reacting to ships actually moving again through one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Oil prices are back near where they were before the war
The BBC reported that global benchmark Brent crude briefly fell below $72.48 a barrel, the level it held the day before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28. Brent later edged up to $73.23, but the move still marked the clearest sign yet that traders believe the immediate Hormuz shock is easing.
Al Jazeera reported similar market movement Thursday morning, saying August Brent crude fell to $72.68 a barrel by 06:39 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $69.58. Both contracts hit their lowest levels since February 27.
The fall follows the June 17 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, which opened a 60-day negotiation period and helped restart limited shipping through the strait. The BBC, citing maritime intelligence firm Kpler, reported that 284 vessels have crossed since June 18, including ships carrying crude oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizer and other goods.
That is progress, but not normality. The BBC noted that prewar traffic was above 100 ships per day, and Kpler’s figures still leave the route far below that pace.
Hormuz is moving, but still politically dangerous
Al Jazeera reported that U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said flows through the Strait of Hormuz were close to prewar levels and that at least 20 million barrels had exited the strait in the previous 24 hours. He also warned that a full return to normal would take weeks because the waterway still needs mine-clearing.
That explains why the market reaction is mixed. Oil traders are seeing more supply, but shipowners still face a complicated security and legal picture.
Oman opened temporary routes Wednesday to help tankers leave the strait, with the International Maritime Organization and Omani authorities coordinating movements. But Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned Thursday that any Hormuz crossing without Iranian authorization was “unacceptable and extremely dangerous,” according to Al Jazeera.
The warning came after a Liberian oil tanker, the Stoic Warrior, reportedly used a route close to Oman’s shore. Tehran has argued that only routes announced by Iran are authorized. Washington says the strait is an international waterway and has rejected Iranian tolls or service fees as a condition of any deal.
Why this matters now
The oil-price drop matters because it is one of the first measurable signs that the crisis is moving from pure escalation risk into a fragile recovery phase. But the recovery still depends on security guarantees, mine-clearing, and whether Iran and the U.S. can turn the 60-day framework into a durable arrangement.
Consumers may not feel the shift immediately. The BBC reported that fuel prices at the pump have not fallen as quickly as crude, and President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation into major energy companies over alleged price gouging. The oil industry argues that fuel prices do not move in lockstep with crude.
For now, the headline is simple: Hormuz traffic is improving enough to pull oil back toward prewar levels. The risk is that Iran’s warning over unauthorized routes shows the waterway is not yet politically settled.
Sources: BBC, Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera.