A Second Intercept in Five Days Raises the Stakes as Operation Epic Fury Enters Day 11
The Iran war took a dramatic turn beyond the Middle East’s borders on Monday when NATO air defenses shot down a second Iranian ballistic missile that had entered Turkish airspace — just five days after the first intercept over the eastern Mediterranean.
Turkey’s defense ministry confirmed the shootdown on March 9, warning that Ankara would “take any necessary steps” against future threats to its territorial integrity. According to Western officials cited by The New York Times, the first missile intercepted on March 4 was believed to have been aimed at Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey, where U.S. Air Force and NATO forces operate.
The incidents mark a significant escalation in the conflict, as Iran’s missile barrages — originally directed at Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf — are now reaching NATO member territory, raising the specter of a wider confrontation.
Operation Epic Fury by the Numbers: 5,000+ Targets Hit in 10 Days
As Operation Epic Fury enters its 11th day on Tuesday, the scale of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran continues to expand at a staggering pace.
U.S. Central Command released a statement Monday evening confirming that American forces have attacked more than 5,000 targets since the operation began on February 28. General Brad Cooper of CENTCOM stated the U.S. military was conducting “24/7 strikes into Iran from seabed to space and cyberspace.”
The campaign has involved more than 50,000 U.S. troops, over 200 fighter aircraft, two aircraft carrier strike groups, and strategic bombers. The combined force has advanced through multiple phases — from suppressing Iranian air defenses in the opening days to targeting military command infrastructure, and now striking defense industrial assets and missile production facilities.
Seven U.S. service members have been killed in action during the operation. The Pentagon identified the seventh casualty on Monday, while Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attended a dignified transfer ceremony for the fallen.
On the Iranian side, at least 1,332 civilians have been killed and thousands wounded since the strikes began, according to Iran’s UN ambassador. The IDF confirmed it struck the Esfahan City Law Enforcement Command Headquarters on March 9, adding to a growing list of regime infrastructure destroyed across the country.
Tehran Choked in Black Smoke as Oil Infrastructure Burns
The war’s devastating environmental toll became impossible to ignore this week as Tehran was engulfed in thick black smoke from burning oil facilities.
Israeli warplanes struck the Shahran oil depot northeast of Tehran and the Shahr-e fuel depot to its south over the weekend — the first time oil storage and refining facilities have been targeted in the conflict. Two days later, both sites continued to burn, sending plumes of toxic smoke across the Iranian capital.
Iran’s environmental agency and the Red Crescent Society warned Tehran’s 9 million residents to stay indoors, citing the risk of acid rain and respiratory damage from toxic chemicals released by the burning fuel installations.
The World Health Organization’s director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, issued a stark warning Monday: “Damage to petroleum facilities in Iran risks contaminating food, water and air — hazards that can have severe health impacts especially on children, older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions.”
Residents described scenes of catastrophe. Soot covered streets and vehicles, balconies were coated in black residue, and the acrid air became nearly unbearable. “Dark, like our future,” one Tehran resident told The Guardian.
Trump Zigzags on War’s End: ‘Very Complete’ or ‘Not Enough’?
President Trump sent mixed signals Monday about the timeline for ending the conflict, whipsawing global markets in the process.
In a phone interview with CBS reporter Weijia Jiang, Trump declared the war “is very complete, pretty much” and “very far ahead of schedule.” Those comments caused oil prices — which had briefly surged to nearly $120 per barrel late Sunday, a four-year high — to tumble sharply, while global stock markets rallied.
But after markets closed, the tone shifted dramatically. Speaking to Republican lawmakers in Florida, Trump said: “We have won in many ways, but not enough. We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all.”
Asked directly if the war would be over this week, Trump said flatly: “No.” Then added: “Soon, very soon.”
The president expressed displeasure at Iran’s decision to name Mojtaba Khamenei — son of the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — as the new supreme leader. “I think they made a big mistake,” Trump told NBC. “I don’t know if it’s going to last.”
Israel has already signaled it may target the younger Khamenei, who is considered a hardliner with deep ties to the Revolutionary Guards.
IRGC Threatens Total Oil Blockade as Hormuz Crisis Deepens
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps issued its most aggressive threat yet on Tuesday, vowing not to allow “one litre of oil” to be shipped from the Middle East if U.S.-Israeli attacks continue.
The threat targets the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Ship traffic through the strait has already been effectively halted by the conflict, sending energy prices into turmoil.
Trump responded with characteristic force, warning the U.S. would hit Iran “20 times harder” if it blocked tanker traffic through the strait. He also claimed the waterway had “reopened to shipping,” though international monitors contradicted this assertion.
In a further attempt to stabilize energy markets, Trump said the U.S. would waive oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease the global shortage, reportedly after speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The G7 group of wealthy nations is also considering intervention to bring oil prices down, adding another layer to the economic fallout from the conflict.
War Spills Into Iraq and Lebanon
The conflict continued to expand beyond Iran’s borders on Tuesday. Four fighters from the Iran-backed Kataeb Imam Ali militia were killed in airstrikes blamed on the United States in northern Iraq — underscoring how the war is reshaping the entire regional security landscape.
In Lebanon, Israel expanded its campaign against the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah, launching fresh strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs. The Lebanese capital’s sports stadiums have been converted into emergency shelters for displaced families.
Israel also launched what it described as a “fresh wave of strikes on Tehran” early Tuesday, targeting regime-linked infrastructure in the Iranian capital.
Meanwhile, France has deployed warships to the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. has ordered government employees to leave Saudi Arabia — signals that Western nations are preparing for the possibility that this conflict could stretch on for weeks, not days.
What Comes Next?
As the war enters its second full week, several key questions loom:
Will NATO be drawn deeper into the conflict? Two Iranian missiles entering Turkish airspace — one apparently targeting Incirlik Air Base — could trigger Article 5 discussions within the alliance, though NATO leaders have so far responded cautiously.
Can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? The IRGC’s threat of a total blockade would represent a dramatic escalation with global economic consequences far beyond the current oil price spike.
How long will the air campaign last? CSIS estimated the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury cost $3.7 billion. With Trump suggesting the war could continue for weeks, the financial and human toll will only grow.
What happens with Iran’s new leadership? Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment has been met with both rallies of support and whispered dissent in Tehran. His fate — and his willingness to negotiate or escalate — may determine whether this conflict ends at the negotiating table or on the battlefield.
One thing is clear: what began as a targeted regime change operation 11 days ago has become the most significant military conflict in the Middle East in decades, with consequences reverberating from the streets of Tehran to NATO headquarters in Brussels.