As Operation Epic Fury enters Day 32, cracks are appearing not just in Iran’s military infrastructure — but in the Western alliance itself. In a dramatic 24-hour stretch, Italy denied US aircraft access to its Sicily air base, Spain closed its airspace to all Iran war-related flights, and France reportedly pushed back on US military operations through its territory. Meanwhile, President Trump gave conflicting statements about the war’s timeline, claiming the US would leave Iran in “two or three weeks” — even as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned the coming days would be “decisive.”
Europe Draws the Line
The most explosive development Tuesday didn’t come from Tehran — it came from Rome. Italy refused US aircraft access to its air base in Sicily for Middle East-bound operations connected to the Iran war, according to Reuters and multiple Italian media outlets. The move is especially significant because Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has been one of Trump’s closest European allies.
“We are not at war and we do not want to enter the war,” Meloni told Italy’s parliament earlier this month. She has also called the US attack on Iran “outside the perimeter of international law.”
Italy’s Defence Minister Guido Crosetto attempted damage control, posting on X that US airbases remained active but that Washington needed “special permission” for uses outside existing agreements. Meloni’s office issued a statement insisting the move had not caused “critical issues or frictions” and that relations with Washington were “solid and based on full and loyal cooperation.”
Spain had already escalated the previous day. Defense Minister Margarita Robles confirmed Madrid had blocked all flights connected to the Iran war from passing through Spanish airspace and barred the use of Spanish military bases. “I think everyone knows Spain’s position,” Robles told reporters.
France reportedly joined the pushback, with sources telling Reuters that Paris had also denied requests to use its airspace or bases for offensive operations against Iran.
Trump’s Conflicting Withdrawal Timeline
Against this backdrop of allied dissent, President Trump gave a series of contradictory statements about how long the war would last. Speaking to NBC News on Tuesday, Trump said the war was “coming to an end” and that the US would leave Iran in “two or three weeks” — an admission the conflict will likely extend beyond the White House’s original four-to-six week estimate.
Trump told the Financial Times that the combined US-Israeli force had struck 13,000 targets since the war began on February 28, with roughly 3,000 targets remaining. He asserted Iran’s military was “crippled” and could no longer put up a fight, accusing the media of painting “a false picture” of Iran’s capacity to keep retaliating.
But the timeline keeps shifting. As PolitiFact documented, Trump has described the war variously as a “minor excursion” that’s “very complete,” “winding down,” lasting “a couple weeks,” and having “just begun.” At a Pentagon briefing Tuesday morning, Hegseth refused to commit to any specific end date. “[Trump]’s said four to six weeks, six to eight weeks, three — it could be any particular number,” Hegseth said.
Hegseth’s Covert Visit and ‘Decisive Days’ Warning
Defense Secretary Hegseth opened his Tuesday Pentagon briefing with a revelation: he had secretly visited US troops in the Middle East over the weekend. He described seeing America’s service members ramping up to “wartime speed” and said the only thing they needed from the US government was resolve.
“The next few days will be decisive,” Hegseth warned, signaling Tehran that the conflict would intensify if Iran didn’t agree to a deal. “They will shoot some missiles; we will shoot them down,” he added.
CENTCOM Commander General Caine confirmed at the same briefing that B-52 bombers had flown over Iran for the first time during the conflict — a significant escalation in terms of the military assets being deployed. The B-52, capable of carrying massive payloads of both conventional and precision munitions, sends an unmistakable message about the coalition’s willingness to escalate.
Iran’s Hormuz Toll Gambit
Iran isn’t just fighting back with missiles. In a bold strategic move, Iran’s Parliament Security Committee approved a plan to impose tolls on all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply transits.
The “Strait of Hormuz Management Plan” includes rial-based fees on shipping, outright bans on US and Israeli vessel passage, and sanctions-related restrictions. It’s the latest attempt by Tehran to weaponize its geographic advantage, and international law experts are already raising serious concerns about the legality of imposing fees on what is normally one of the world’s busiest international waterways.
The move came the same day oil prices continued their historic surge, with US crude settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022. Brent crude hit $115 per barrel. The average US gas price has surpassed $3.99 per gallon, according to AAA — the highest since the initial COVID recovery spike.
On the Ground: Strikes Continue Across Iran
Despite all the talk of withdrawal timelines, the reality on the ground tells a different story. US and Israeli air strikes continued across Iran on Tuesday, with powerful explosions reported in both Tehran and Isfahan. At least two people were killed in a US-Israeli strike on an orphanage, Iranian state media reported — a claim that, if verified, would add to the mounting civilian casualty toll.
Iran continues to retaliate. The UAE reported intercepting 8 ballistic missiles, 4 cruise missiles, and 36 drones launched from Iran on March 31 alone. Since the war began, UAE air defenses have engaged a staggering 433 ballistic missiles, 19 cruise missiles, and 1,977 drones.
A Kuwaiti oil tanker was struck off Dubai, adding to the growing toll on Gulf shipping. And Hezbollah launched a rocket barrage into northern Israel, injuring three people — a reminder that Iran’s proxy network remains active even as its homeland comes under sustained bombardment.
The Diplomatic Disconnect
Perhaps the most telling detail of Day 32 is the massive gap between Washington’s claims and Tehran’s position on negotiations. Trump said the US was negotiating with Iran’s parliamentary speaker. But Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei flatly denied this, saying Iran had engaged in “no direct negotiations with the United States to date” and that all messages were being exchanged through intermediaries.
Hegseth indicated at the Pentagon briefing that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was not a key objective — a stunning statement given the global economic impact of the waterway’s disruption. He added that the Trump administration was “open to a deal” but emphasized it was ultimately the president’s call when the war would end.
What Comes Next
The war is entering a critical phase. Hegseth’s “decisive days” warning, combined with the B-52 deployment and Trump’s shifting timeline, suggests the administration is pressing for maximum military leverage ahead of potential negotiations. But the European pushback adds a new dimension: if NATO allies continue to restrict US military access, it could complicate logistics and signal to Iran that the coalition’s resolve has limits.
For now, the bombs keep falling, the oil keeps rising, and the diplomatic path forward remains as murky as ever. One thing is clear: Day 32 of Operation Epic Fury has raised more questions than it has answered.
This is a developing story. List25 will continue to update as new information becomes available.