Spain Slams the Door on US Warplanes
One month into the most significant US military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, cracks within the Western alliance are widening into chasms.
On Monday, Spain officially closed its airspace to all US military aircraft involved in operations against Iran — a dramatic escalation that goes beyond Madrid’s earlier refusal to allow American planes to use jointly operated military bases on Spanish soil.
“We don’t authorize either the use of military bases or the use of airspace for actions related to the war in Iran,” Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles told reporters in Madrid. “I think everyone knows Spain’s position.”
The move, first reported by Spain’s El País newspaper citing military sources, forces US warplanes to bypass the Iberian Peninsula entirely when routing missions to the Middle East — adding time, fuel costs, and logistical complexity to an already strained operation.
Spain’s leftist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been one of the most vocal opponents of Operation Epic Fury since it began on February 28, calling the US-Israeli campaign “reckless and illegal.” The airspace closure marks the most aggressive step yet by a NATO member to distance itself from Washington’s war effort.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Spain’s move “disappointing,” while NATO headquarters declined to comment, referring questions to national authorities. According to PBS News, Spain’s decision against a NATO ally is rare but not unprecedented — France and Italy blocked US military overflight rights during the 1986 operation targeting Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi.
Kuwait Oil Tanker Ablaze at Dubai Port
While the diplomatic fallout spreads across Europe, the physical consequences of the Iran war continue to devastate the Persian Gulf.
In the latest strike targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, Iranian forces attacked the Al Salmi, a fully loaded Kuwaiti crude oil tanker anchored at Dubai port in the United Arab Emirates. The strike damaged the vessel’s hull and set it ablaze, according to Kuwait’s state news agency, citing the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation.
No casualties were reported from the tanker attack, but the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation issued a stark warning about the possibility of a major oil spill into surrounding waters. The assault came just hours after an Iranian attack on a power generation and water desalination plant in Kuwait killed an Indian worker — the latest civilian casualty in Iran’s escalating campaign against Gulf states it accuses of supporting the US-Israeli operation.
Brent crude futures surged over 3.2% to $116.12 per barrel on Monday, with the international benchmark heading for a record monthly jump. US West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 3.4% to $102.96 per barrel. Since the war began on February 28, global energy markets have been in sustained turmoil as Iran has weaponized its control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s Carrot and Stick: Obliteration Threats Meet Secret Talks
President Donald Trump on Monday morning issued his most direct threat yet against Iran’s energy infrastructure, warning that the United States would “completely obliterate” Iran’s electric generating plants, oil wells, and the strategic Kharg Island export hub if the Strait of Hormuz is not “immediately” reopened and a peace deal is not reached “shortly.”
In a Financial Times interview published Sunday, Trump went even further, suggesting the US could seize Iran’s oil — comparing it to the American military operation in Venezuela earlier this year.
“My favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the U.S. say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people,” Trump told the FT. “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options.”
Yet even as Trump ratcheted up the rhetoric, he simultaneously claimed to be making “great progress” in negotiations with what he called a “more reasonable regime” in Tehran, referencing indirect talks channeled through Pakistani emissaries.
Iran flatly denied any direct negotiations. “We have had no negotiations with America in these 31 days,” an Iranian official told reporters, insisting Tehran would not engage diplomatically until US military aggression ended.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced that his country is preparing to host peace talks “in the coming days,” offering a potential diplomatic offramp — though the gap between the two sides appears vast.
One Month of Operation Epic Fury: The Numbers
As the conflict enters its second month, the human and strategic costs are mounting on both sides.
According to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), 13 US service members have died during Operation Epic Fury. The casualties include six killed in an Iranian drone attack at Port Shuaiba in Kuwait on March 1, and six more killed when a KC-135 aircraft crashed in western Iraq on March 12. Funeral arrangements were announced Monday for Specialist Ashley Pruitt, 34, of Kentucky, one of the KC-135 crash victims.
On the Iranian side, estimates suggest more than 2,000 people have been killed since the campaign began, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the initial strikes on February 28. Coalition forces have struck four key Iranian ballistic missile production facilities, according to the Washington Post, and have degraded significant portions of Iran’s air defense network.
The Pentagon confirmed that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine will hold a press conference Tuesday morning — the first public briefing on the war’s status since March 19.
Iran’s Domestic Crackdown Intensifies
Inside Iran, the regime is preparing not just for war — but for what comes after.
A detailed Reuters investigation published Monday revealed that Iranian authorities have launched a sweeping crackdown on dissent, deploying the Basij militia to set up checkpoints in and around major cities, executing dissidents, and conducting mass arrests.
Most alarmingly, the Revolutionary Guards have dropped the minimum age for checkpoint and patrol volunteers to 12, signaling acute manpower shortages within the paramilitary organization.
“The Iranian regime was already in deep trouble before the war and it’s now taking a big hit,” said Ali Ansari, a professor of modern history at the University of St Andrews. “All the old problems will come back worse when peace comes. The regime is paranoid, wounded and bitter and it will want to crush any trouble before it starts, but doing so could actually turn more people against it.”
Despite hopes from both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the campaign could trigger regime change, Iran’s leadership appears to have consolidated control — at least for now — by channeling wartime nationalism and deploying brutal internal security measures.
The Strategic Paradox: Is Iran Winning?
Perhaps the most striking assessment one month into the conflict comes from Bloomberg, which reported Monday that despite losing senior leaders and suffering devastating strikes across the country, it is arguably Iran that has secured the most significant strategic victory through its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
By effectively closing the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, Iran has sent energy prices into the stratosphere, inflicted economic pain on the very Gulf Arab states allied with Washington, and created leverage that Trump himself appears to acknowledge — evidenced by his increasingly desperate demands to reopen the strait.
The coalition’s military campaign formally transitioned from offensive degradation to “armed stabilization and international containment” around March 21, according to open-source intelligence trackers, effectively marking the end of major combat operations. Yet Iran continues to launch drone and missile attacks against Gulf neighbors, with Saudi Arabia reporting it intercepted 10 Iranian drones on March 29 alone, and Qatar confirming its second interception of Iranian attacks since the war began.
What Comes Next
As the war enters its second month, the trajectory remains deeply uncertain. The Pentagon is reportedly preparing for weeks of potential ground conflict, with approximately 3,500 troops arriving in the region last Friday and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division ordered to support operations. Trump has openly discussed the possibility of seizing Kharg Island, though Pentagon sources have warned such an operation would be “very risky.”
Meanwhile, the diplomatic landscape grows more complicated by the day. Spain’s airspace closure could embolden other European nations — Germany has already declared “this is not our war” — to further distance themselves from Washington’s campaign. The UK initially refused airbase access before partially backing down, but the “special relationship” has taken visible damage.
The one-month mark finds Operation Epic Fury at a crossroads: military objectives largely achieved, but strategic victory elusive. Iran battered but unbroken. Allies fracturing. Oil prices soaring. And a president oscillating between obliteration threats and claims of diplomatic progress.
The next 30 days may prove even more consequential than the first.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as the situation evolves.