Europe Says No: The Western Alliance Fractures Over the Strait of Hormuz
As Operation Epic Fury grinds into its 17th day, the conflict threatening to redraw the map of the Middle East has now cracked open a fault line much closer to home — the Western alliance itself.
President Donald Trump issued what may be his most consequential ultimatum of the war on Monday, warning NATO allies that the alliance faces a “very bad future” if member nations refuse to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s effective blockade of the critical waterway — through which roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil and refined fuels normally flow — has sent energy markets into turmoil and raised the specter of a global economic crisis.
But Europe isn’t biting.
Germany: ‘This War Has Nothing to Do With NATO’
In perhaps the most blunt rejection yet of Washington’s call for support, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s spokesperson delivered a stark message on Monday: “This war has nothing to do with NATO. This is not NATO’s war.”
The statement, confirmed by CNN and Reuters, represents a seismic shift in transatlantic relations. Germany — traditionally one of Washington’s most reliable European partners — is drawing a hard line between NATO’s collective defense obligations and what Berlin views as a unilateral US-Israeli military campaign.
Germany isn’t alone. Britain has echoed Berlin’s position that the Iran conflict falls outside NATO’s mandate. Greece and Italy have explicitly ruled out military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz. Australia declared it will not send warships to the Middle East. Japan has said it is “still considering” but made no commitments.
Even France, which has deployed naval assets in a forward position in the Mediterranean, is walking a careful line — urging Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian to end indiscriminate strikes in the Gulf while stopping well short of joining any US-led naval coalition.
Iran’s Counter-Strategy: ‘Closed to Our Enemies’
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a press conference in Tehran on Monday where he outlined Iran’s position with characteristic bluntness. The Strait of Hormuz, he said, is “only closed to our enemies” — meaning the United States, Israel, and their active military allies.
The distinction is strategically significant. An oil tanker was observed clearing the strait on Monday and sailing toward Pakistan — a country Iran has publicly thanked for showing “solidarity.” Tehran is effectively weaponizing access to the world’s most important shipping chokepoint, rewarding neutrality and punishing participation in the US-led campaign.
Araghchi also said Iran is “open to countries who want to talk about safe passage” through the strait, dangling a diplomatic carrot even as Iranian drones and missiles continue to strike targets across the Gulf.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared to partially acknowledge this reality on Monday, telling reporters the US is “fine” with some Iranian, Indian, and Chinese ships transiting the strait for now. He argued that allowing some supply through helps moderate global oil prices — a tacit admission that Washington cannot fully enforce freedom of navigation while simultaneously bombing Iran.
Gulf States Under Fire: UAE Hit With 27 Projectiles
The war’s regional footprint expanded dramatically on Monday. The United Arab Emirates reported being attacked with six ballistic missiles and 21 drones originating from Iran. A drone strike ignited a fire at an industrial oil facility in the UAE’s Fujairah emirate.
Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones over Riyadh early Monday morning, though officials did not publicly attribute the attack. Dubai International Airport — one of the world’s busiest aviation hubs — was forced to temporarily suspend flights after a fire broke out near the facility following a drone attack.
The attacks on Gulf states represent a significant escalation. Iran appears to be targeting the military and economic infrastructure of nations hosting US assets, sending a clear message about the cost of facilitating Operation Epic Fury.
Israel Opens a Second Front in Lebanon
In a development that threatens to widen the conflict even further, the Israel Defense Forces announced on Monday that they have launched what they described as “limited ground operations” in southern Lebanon.
The IDF said its forces are targeting key Hezbollah locations and expanding forward defense zones, framing the offensive as a defensive necessity after weeks of sustained rocket and drone attacks. According to Israeli officials, Hezbollah has been launching an average of at least 100 rockets and drones per day toward Israel since the war began — some reaching as far as central Israel.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said the operation would continue until residents of northern Israel are safe.
But the reality on the ground tells a more complex story. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that 850 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since March 2, when Israel began striking Lebanon in response to Hezbollah’s rocket barrages. Many of those strikes have hit residential neighborhoods far from military targets, drawing international condemnation.
Debris from intercepted projectiles fell across several cities near Tel Aviv on Monday — including Shoham, Rishon LeZion, Lod, and Ness Ziona — though Israeli authorities reported no casualties from those incidents.
The Toll So Far: IRGC Devastated, US Losses Mount
The military toll of the first 17 days is staggering. According to the Jerusalem Post, over 6,000 members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been killed and approximately 15,000 wounded since the start of Operations Roaring Lion (Israel’s codename) and Epic Fury.
Israel’s military spokesperson Effie Defrin said on Monday that there are still “thousands of targets” remaining in Iran, even as US and Israeli forces have struck Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Tabriz, Hamadan, and the strategically critical Kharg Island.
The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported that US airstrikes damaged one of its relief posts and a clinic in Tehran Province overnight — adding to concerns about civilian infrastructure being caught in the campaign.
On the American side, the death toll in Operation Epic Fury has reached at least 13 service members. Six were killed on Thursday when a KC-135 refueling plane crashed in Iraq during operations. The other seven died in combat. Additional B-52 bombers have arrived at RAF Fairford in the UK, and a Marine Expeditionary Unit is en route to the region — signs that the Pentagon is preparing for a longer campaign than initially anticipated.
Trump-Xi Summit in Doubt
The diplomatic fallout extends beyond NATO. The White House confirmed Monday that Trump’s highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping — scheduled for March 31 to April 2 — may be delayed.
“I don’t think the meeting is in jeopardy, but it’s quite possible the meeting could be delayed,” spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Fox News. “As commander-in-chief, it’s his number one priority right now to ensure the continued success of this operation, Epic Fury.”
Trump told the Financial Times he might postpone the summit if China doesn’t help unblock the Strait of Hormuz — effectively turning a bilateral trade meeting into leverage for his Middle East war coalition.
China’s response has been tepid at best. Beijing has made no commitments, and its ships continue to transit the strait under what amounts to Iranian permission — a dynamic that underscores Washington’s diminishing ability to dictate the terms of global maritime commerce.
What Comes Next
Day 17 of Operation Epic Fury finds the United States in an increasingly isolated position. The military campaign against Iran continues with overwhelming firepower — B-52s, F-35s, naval assets spanning “seabed to space and cyberspace,” as CENTCOM commander Gen. Brad Cooper described it.
But the political and diplomatic picture is far more complicated. Europe refuses to be drawn in. Gulf allies are under direct fire. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blockaded. Oil prices continue to surge. And Iran, despite devastating losses, shows no signs of capitulating.
Trump insisted on Monday that Iran “wants to negotiate badly.” Iran’s foreign minister responded that Tehran will continue fighting “as far as needed.”
The war that was initially expected to last just a few days is now entering its third week with no endgame in sight.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as the situation evolves.