Trump Declared Victory. Markets Aren’t Buying It.
President Donald Trump took to the airwaves Wednesday night in his first primetime national address on the Iran war — and the world watched with bated breath. The verdict from Wall Street and global markets? Not exactly a standing ovation.
While the President declared that Operation Epic Fury’s “core objectives are near completion” and promised to wind down military operations within two to three weeks, his simultaneous threat to hit Iran “extremely hard” and bomb the country “back to the Stone Ages” sent shockwaves through already jittery financial markets.
Asia-Pacific Markets Reverse Wednesday’s Gains
The fallout was immediate. Asia-Pacific markets that had rallied on hopes of a ceasefire during Wednesday’s trading session abruptly reversed course after Trump’s address aired.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged 1.4%, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped a brutal 2.82%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, which had started Thursday in positive territory, slid 0.48%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index opened 0.5% lower, and China’s CSI 300 flatlined.
This came just hours after global markets had enjoyed their best day in nearly a year. The S&P 500 had risen 0.7% on Wednesday — building on Tuesday’s rally, which was the index’s best single-day performance since spring 2025. European markets surged even harder, with South Korea posting an 8.4% jump as it played catch-up to Wall Street’s optimism.
All of that evaporated overnight.
Oil Prices: The Number That Won’t Come Down
The elephant in the room remains crude oil. Despite Trump’s assurances that gasoline prices “would be coming down,” the reality on the ground tells a very different story.
Oil prices surged again Thursday after Trump’s address failed to address the one question that matters most to global energy markets: When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?
Brent crude has been hovering near $100 per barrel — a level not seen since July 2022 — and the International Energy Agency has issued a stark warning that April will be “much worse than March” for global oil supply.
The IEA’s chief, Fatih Birol, told investors this week that the energy crisis sparked by the Iran war is the worst in history. His reasoning is simple but terrifying: in March, some oil and gas cargo ships that transited through Hormuz before the war began were still making deliveries. Those shipments are now exhausted. April marks the first full month with zero flow through the strait.
Bank of America economists have projected oil will stay at $100 per barrel through the rest of 2026, with slower growth and higher inflation as the baseline scenario.
The average U.S. gas price has already surpassed $4 per gallon, according to AAA. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said bluntly after the speech that he doesn’t see “any real plan” to stop gas from reaching $5.
The Hormuz Question Nobody Can Answer
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the war began on February 28. The narrow waterway handles roughly 20% of global oil supplies and significant liquefied natural gas volumes. Its closure has triggered what the IEA calls “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”
Trump addressed this in characteristically blunt fashion. Earlier Wednesday, he posted on Truth Social: “Iran has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry swiftly denied any ceasefire request, calling Trump’s claim “false and baseless.”
During his primetime remarks, Trump appeared to shift responsibility for reopening Hormuz to allied nations. He told reporters that after the war ends, other countries will “be able to fend for themselves” if they need to import oil through the strait.
This alarmed European and Asian allies who depend heavily on Gulf energy exports. The UK has been rallying 35 nations for a coalition to reopen the strait, but without direct U.S. military commitment to the effort, the prospects remain uncertain.
The Human and Strategic Cost So Far
As the war enters its 33rd day, the toll continues to mount:
- 13 U.S. service members killed, with hundreds more wounded
- At least 50 civilians killed in Iranian retaliatory attacks across Gulf nations
- 17 killed in Israel from Iranian missile and drone strikes
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed in the opening strikes on February 28
- IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri killed — his funeral procession drew massive crowds
- 56 Iranian cultural heritage sites damaged, according to Iran’s cultural heritage minister
- A top Iranian official injured in a fresh strike on Tehran reported Wednesday
The JINSA (Jewish Institute for National Security of America) published an analysis Wednesday arguing that the U.S. should focus on “end states, not end dates” — warning that a premature withdrawal could leave Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear ambitions intact.
Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, was far more critical: “President Trump’s address tonight did little to answer the most basic questions the American people deserve. There is still no clear plan to secure Iran’s nuclear material, its ballistic missile capabilities remain a threat, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.”
Trump Threatens Iran’s Power Grid
Perhaps the most alarming new threat from the address: Trump warned that if no deal materializes, “we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard, and probably simultaneously.”
Targeting civilian electrical infrastructure would represent a significant escalation and could constitute a war crime under international law, experts have warned. CNN reported that the White House press secretary, when asked about this, said only that the U.S. military would operate “within the confines of the law.”
What Happens Next
The contradiction at the heart of Trump’s address is hard to miss: he simultaneously declared the mission nearly complete while threatening the most devastating escalation yet.
Markets are clearly struggling to reconcile these competing signals. The manic swings — rally on ceasefire hopes, crash on escalation threats — have defined trading since the war began, and Wednesday night’s address only amplified the uncertainty.
The critical questions heading into April:
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen? Without it, the global energy crisis deepens by the week.
- Will Iran actually negotiate? Tehran has denied requesting a ceasefire and says reopening Hormuz is off the table during hostilities.
- Can NATO survive the strain? Trump has floated leaving the alliance over allied reluctance to support the Iran campaign.
- How high will gas prices go? Analysts see $5 per gallon as increasingly likely if Hormuz stays closed through April.
One thing is certain: the world is watching, the markets are nervous, and the next two to three weeks Trump promised will determine whether Operation Epic Fury ends with the decisive victory he’s claiming — or the “mission creep” his critics are warning about.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as global markets react to Trump’s primetime address.