Day 24: Israel Escalates While Trump Extends an Olive Branch
The Iran war entered its most contradictory chapter yet on Monday, March 23, 2026, as Israel launched what it called an “extensive wave of strikes” directly into the heart of Tehran — targeting the main security headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — while President Donald Trump simultaneously announced he was pausing all U.S. strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, citing “very good and productive conversations” with Tehran.
The result: a day of diplomatic whiplash that left markets swinging, Tehran denying any talks had taken place, and a stunning Politico report revealing that the Trump administration is quietly eyeing Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, as a potential future leader of Iran.
Israel’s ‘Unprecedented’ Strikes Rock Tehran
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed it had launched at least two separate waves of airstrikes across Tehran on Monday, including a direct hit on what it described as the “main security headquarters” of the IRGC.
Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Tehran, Suhaib al-Asa, described the explosions as “unprecedented” in size and volume, particularly on the eastern side of the capital. Iranian air defense systems were activated as U.S.-Israeli drones hovered over the city.
The strikes were not limited to Tehran. Explosions were reported in Isfahan, Karaj, Ahvaz, Bandar Abbas, Tabriz, and Khorramabad. In Tabriz alone, at least six people were killed in strikes on residential buildings. A radio station in Bandar Abbas was hit, killing one person. In Ahvaz, a hospital was reportedly impacted.
According to Iran’s Red Crescent Society, more than 80,000 civilian building units have now been damaged or destroyed since the war began on February 28 — a staggering figure that includes hospitals, schools, academic institutions, and humanitarian facilities.
The head of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), Admiral Brad Cooper, accused Iran of launching missiles and drones from populated areas, suggesting those civilian-adjacent sites would be fair targets. He provided no evidence to support the claim.
Trump’s 5-Day Pause: ‘Productive Talks’ or Market Manipulation?
In a Truth Social post early Monday morning, President Trump announced he was ordering War Secretary Pete Hegseth to postpone any strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.
“The United States and Iran have had very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” Trump wrote in his signature all-caps style.
The announcement came just hours before a self-imposed 48-hour deadline Trump had set on Saturday, when he threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran did not “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.
Markets reacted instantly. Stocks rose and oil prices fell on hopes of a potential diplomatic breakthrough.
But Iran’s response was swift and categorical: there are no talks.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement through the semi-official Mehr news agency saying there had been “no dialogue” between Tehran and Washington. The ministry accused Trump of attempting “to reduce energy prices and to buy time for implementing his military plans.”
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf went further, writing on X (formerly Twitter) that “no negotiations have been held with the U.S.” and calling Trump’s claims “fake news” designed to manipulate financial and oil markets.
The Ghalibaf Factor: Is Washington Already Picking Iran’s Next Leader?
Perhaps the most explosive revelation of the day came not from the battlefield but from Washington’s political corridors.
Politico reported Monday that the Trump administration is “quietly weighing” Ghalibaf as a potential partner — and even a potential future leader of Iran.
“He’s a hot option,” one administration official told Politico. “He’s one of the highest… But we got to test them, and we can’t rush into it.”
The report suggests that some White House officials see Ghalibaf as a pragmatic figure who could negotiate with the Trump administration to end the war — a remarkable calculation given that the same man publicly denied any talks were happening just hours earlier.
This dual-track approach — publicly denying negotiations while privately being assessed as a future leader — reflects the kind of backroom maneuvering that has defined America’s Middle East strategy for decades. Whether Ghalibaf is genuinely a willing interlocutor or simply the most visible surviving official in a devastated Iranian government remains an open question.
The Strait of Hormuz: Still Closed, Still Dangerous
While the diplomatic signals flew back and forth, the economic reality on the ground remained grim. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily — remains effectively closed.
Iran has attacked commercial shipping, reportedly laid mines in the waterway, and threatened to “completely close” the strait if the U.S. follows through on striking its power plants. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed the threat level across the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman remains “critical,” with 21 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels and offshore infrastructure since March 1.
Daily oil exports from the Middle East have fallen by at least 60 percent since the war began, according to U.S. Treasury data.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the current energy crunch is worse than the 1970s oil crises and the Ukraine war combined — a stark assessment that underscores how this conflict has rippled far beyond the Middle East.
In a partial attempt to ease prices, the U.S. Treasury issued a short-term waiver on March 20 permitting the sale of Iranian oil already in transit — roughly 140 million barrels. But no new purchases are allowed, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that “maximum pressure” on Iran’s access to the international financial system will continue.
Iran Hits Back: Missiles on Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Beyond
Iran showed no signs of backing down on March 23. The country launched at least six separate missile attacks throughout the day, with falling shrapnel reported across southern and central Israel.
Saudi Arabia’s defense ministry detected two ballistic missiles fired toward the Riyadh area. In a joint attack, Hezbollah and Iran targeted northern Israel simultaneously, triggering sirens across the region.
Iran’s military has made clear that any strike on its power plants would trigger retaliatory attacks against energy infrastructure across the Gulf — a threat that, given the already-catastrophic state of global energy markets, has effectively served as a deterrent.
Israeli officials, meanwhile, expressed concern that the U.S. might “stop the war prematurely.” Multiple Israeli sources told Al Jazeera that Israel intends to continue escalating its campaign against Iran regardless of any U.S. diplomatic pause.
The Status of Mojtaba Khamenei
Adding to the fog of war, questions continue to swirl about the status of Mojtaba Khamenei — the son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the initial February 28 strikes.
U.S. officials have stated that Mojtaba was “seriously wounded” in the opening salvo of Operation Epic Fury. The Iranian regime has neither confirmed nor denied this, and — critically — has not produced any video evidence showing him alive and well, despite having every incentive to do so.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that the regime “could easily dispel these rumors with a simple video but has not,” fueling widespread speculation that Iran’s leadership structure may be more fractured than publicly acknowledged.
What Comes Next: Five Days That Could Change Everything
The five-day pause on energy strikes creates a narrow but real window for diplomacy — or at least for the appearance of it.
The key questions heading into this critical week:
Will back-channel communications between Washington and Tehran produce any concrete framework? The New York Times reported that while Iran publicly denies talks, “messages were being traded through intermediaries” — suggesting some form of indirect communication is occurring.
Will Israel respect the pause? Monday’s strikes on the IRGC headquarters suggest Netanyahu has no intention of slowing down, even as his American ally extends diplomatic feelers.
Can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? With global energy markets in freefall and the IEA sounding alarms, the economic pressure to resolve this crisis is mounting by the hour.
Is Ghalibaf really a viable partner? The Politico revelation puts enormous pressure on a man who, publicly at least, is toeing the hardline. Whether he represents a genuine off-ramp or a Washington fantasy remains to be seen.
One thing is clear: Day 24 of Operation Epic Fury has produced more questions than answers. And with over 9,000 strikes already conducted and the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the clock is ticking on what could be the most consequential week of this war.