As Operation Epic Fury enters its seventh day, the U.S. military says Iran’s ability to fight back is collapsing — but the conflict is now threatening to pull in NATO and could soon see the first ground forces cross into Iranian territory.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced Thursday that Iranian ballistic missile attacks have plunged by 90 percent and drone launches are down 83 percent since the combined U.S.-Israeli campaign began on February 28. The Pentagon says sustained 24/7 strikes from “seabed to space and cyberspace” have systematically destroyed Iran’s ability to project military power — dismantling IRGC command centers, air defense networks, missile launch sites, and military airfields across the country.
But even as Iran’s retaliatory capability fades, the war is expanding in dangerous new directions — including a missile that nearly hit a NATO ally.
NATO Shoots Down Iranian Missile Headed for Turkey
In one of the most alarming developments of the conflict so far, NATO air defenses intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile over the eastern Mediterranean that was heading toward Incirlik Air Base in Turkey — a facility that hosts American forces and, critically, a stockpile of U.S. non-strategic nuclear weapons.
Turkey’s Defense Ministry confirmed the intercept, stating the missile was detected to have been launched from Iranian territory. NATO spokesperson Allison Hart issued a stern warning: “We condemn Iran’s targeting of Turkey. NATO stands firmly with all Allies, including Turkey, as Iran continues its indiscriminate attacks across the region.”
Iran’s military denied firing any missile toward Turkey — a claim that strains credibility given the trajectory data NATO released. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth acknowledged the incident during a Pentagon briefing but deferred to intelligence officials for details.
The implications are enormous. Turkey is a NATO member, and an attack on its territory could theoretically trigger Article 5 — the alliance’s collective defense clause. While NATO leadership has so far stopped short of invoking it, CNBC reports that the bar remains high and allies are “feeling the heat” as Iranian fire spreads indiscriminately across the region.
Iran Has Now Attacked 12 Different Countries
CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper made a staggering announcement on Friday: Iran has now attacked 12 different countries since the war began, and “continues to deliberately target civilians throughout the Middle East.”
According to multiple reports, Iranian missiles and drones have struck or been fired toward:
- Israel — Over 500 ballistic missiles and nearly 2,000 drones launched since February 28, according to Iran’s own Fars News Agency
- Turkey — Ballistic missile intercepted by NATO
- Azerbaijan — An Iranian drone injured two civilians in the Nakhchivan exclave
- Bahrain — Air defenses have destroyed 78 incoming missiles
- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, UAE — Gulf states bearing the brunt of Iran’s retaliatory fire
- Cyprus — The Akrotiri and Dhekelia British Overseas Territory was targeted
- Iraq (Kurdistan Region) — Multiple strikes on Kurdish areas
Iran’s strategy appears to be one of desperation — lashing out at any target within range as its core military infrastructure is systematically destroyed. But the indiscriminate nature of the attacks is rapidly turning regional opinion against Tehran and raising the prospect of additional nations joining the coalition.
Israel Launches ‘Broad-Scale’ Blitz on Tehran and Beirut
Overnight Thursday into Friday, the Israeli military announced it had launched a “broad-scale wave of strikes” on Tehran itself — the most intense bombardment of the Iranian capital since the war began. Witnesses described explosions shaking homes across the city, and BBC Verify has confirmed visual evidence of strikes on more than 20 locations in Tehran and attacks in 30 other cities and towns across Iran.
Hours earlier, Israel had hammered Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut’s southern suburbs — sending a clear message that the Lebanese militia’s decision to join the conflict on Monday would carry devastating consequences. Iran’s state broadcaster said Tehran fired missiles “against targets in the heart of Tel Aviv” in retaliation, and video showed missiles streaking across the night sky over central Israel on Thursday evening.
The combined US-Israeli force has now advanced to Phase 2 of the campaign, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Phase 1 focused on suppressing Iranian air defenses and command-and-control infrastructure. Phase 2 is targeting Iran’s defense industrial base — specifically its missile production facilities — to ensure the regime cannot rebuild its strike capabilities.
Kurdish Forces May Become First Ground Troops in Iran
In a development that could fundamentally change the character of the conflict, reports indicate that Kurdish forces backed by the United States and Israel are preparing to become the first ground troops to enter Iran.
Global National’s Jeff Semple, reporting from Van, Turkey near the Iranian border, described preparations by Kurdish fighters to cross into Iranian territory. The move would open a ground front in the conflict for the first time — something the U.S. has so far avoided by relying exclusively on air and naval power.
Kurdish groups — including Iranian Kurdish factions that have long fought for autonomy from Tehran — would represent a potent ground force familiar with the terrain along Iran’s western border. Their involvement would also add an ethnic and separatist dimension to a war that has so far been framed primarily around nuclear proliferation and regional security.
Congress Gives Trump Green Light to Continue
Back in Washington, attempts to rein in the President’s war-making authority have failed on both sides of Capitol Hill. The Senate voted 47-53 to defeat a war powers resolution that would have required President Trump to obtain congressional authorization to continue military operations in Iran. The House rejected a similar measure.
The votes effectively give the administration a free hand to continue and escalate Operation Epic Fury for the foreseeable future. Both Trump and Secretary Hegseth have indicated the conflict could continue for weeks, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates the operation has already cost $3.7 billion in its first 100 hours alone.
Hegseth traveled to CENTCOM headquarters at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa on Thursday for operational updates from Admiral Cooper, signaling that the Pentagon is settling in for a prolonged campaign.
Civilian Toll Mounting
The human cost continues to climb. The World Health Organization reports that 13 healthcare sites in Iran have been hit during the conflict. In the southern city of Minab, at least 168 people including children were killed when strikes hit near a girls’ school — an incident that has drawn international condemnation.
An estimated 800 to 1,500 Iranians have been killed in seven days of war, according to The Guardian, though the true toll is likely far higher given the destruction of communications infrastructure across the country.
What Comes Next
The trajectory of the conflict is becoming clearer by the day. Iran’s offensive capability is being ground down at an extraordinary rate — a 90% drop in missile launches in just one week suggests the regime is running out of both weapons and functioning launch infrastructure. The question now is whether Tehran will seek to negotiate or continue its defiant stance.
President Trump has made his position clear: “There will not be a deal except unconditional surrender,” he declared, echoing the demands the United States made of Japan in 1945. Whether Iran’s remaining leadership — still reeling from the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei earlier in the conflict — has the capacity or willingness to accept such terms remains the central question of this rapidly evolving war.
With NATO now directly involved in intercepting Iranian fire, Kurdish ground forces potentially crossing the border, and Hezbollah opening a second front from Lebanon, this conflict shows no signs of narrowing. If anything, Day 7 has proven that the war is still expanding — even as Iran’s ability to fight it is rapidly disappearing.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as the situation evolves.