A Leader No One Has Seen
Seventeen days into Operation Epic Fury, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to appear in public — and the mystery surrounding his condition is becoming one of the most consequential wildcards of the war.
Khamenei, 56, was hastily elevated by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the opening US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28. But according to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the younger Khamenei was wounded in those same strikes and is “likely disfigured.” President Trump went further Sunday night, telling reporters aboard Air Force One that he has “heard Mojtaba Khamenei is not alive” — though he offered no evidence.
The only communication attributed to Iran’s new supreme leader has been a single written statement read on state television on March 12, calling for continued military resistance. No video. No audio. No public appearance.
Unverified reports suggest Mojtaba may have been transferred to Moscow for medical treatment. Others indicate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is effectively running the country in his absence.
The Nowruz Deadline
The situation is approaching a hard deadline. The Persian New Year, Nowruz, falls on Friday, March 20. Every year, Iran’s supreme leader delivers a televised message to the nation on the first day of the new year. If no Nowruz address appears from Mojtaba Khamenei, it would be an unprecedented signal that something is deeply wrong at the top of the Islamic Republic.
Meanwhile, the fire festival of Chaharshanbe Suri — traditionally celebrated in the final days before Nowruz — could become a flashpoint. Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has called on Iranians to turn the festival into “a symbol of national solidarity,” and hinted he may celebrate Nowruz in Tehran himself — a stunning suggestion from the son of the last Shah.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that weakening Iran’s ability to repress domestic dissent is a core objective of the military campaign. Israeli drones have specifically targeted Basij militia checkpoints across Tehran, using geolocated social media videos posted by Iranian citizens to identify targets.
In a disturbing development, IRGC-linked media published footage appearing to show Basij members positioning their own children at security checkpoints — what analysts say would constitute using minors as human shields against Israeli strikes.
Trump Blasts Allies: ‘The Level of Enthusiasm Matters to Me’
While Iran’s leadership crisis deepens, President Trump is waging a diplomatic battle of his own — against America’s allies.
Trump has demanded that roughly seven countries, including the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China, send warships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, the vital chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s oil normally flows. Iran has effectively shut the strait since the war began, using drones, mines, and missiles to reduce commercial traffic to a trickle — only 15 cargo vessels passed through between February 28 and March 12.
“The level of enthusiasm matters to me,” Trump said Monday at the White House. “We will remember.”
The response from allies has been tepid at best. Japan’s defense minister told parliament that Tokyo is “not at the moment considering issuing a maritime security operation.” The UK initially turned down Trump’s request to send ships, and EU foreign ministers voted against expanding their naval operations in the region.
Trump singled out Britain, saying he was “not happy” and “very surprised” by the UK’s response, claiming London’s later offer to send aircraft carriers came “too late.”
France’s Emmanuel Macron was the only leader Trump said had expressed willingness to help, though no concrete deployments have been announced.
The US is now rushing additional forces to the region. Roughly 5,000 sailors and Marines aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli are being deployed from Japan, though the vessel won’t arrive for approximately 10 days.
Oil Crisis Intensifies as Brent Crude Tops $100
The Hormuz blockade is sending shockwaves through global energy markets. Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel — up roughly 40% since the war began. The International Energy Agency says its 32 member countries still hold 1.4 billion barrels in additional reserves beyond the record 400 million barrels released last week.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushed back on characterizations of the supply gap Monday on CNBC, noting that approximately 20 million barrels per day normally flow through the Gulf — making even partial disruptions enormously consequential.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi offered a provocative framing: “From our perspective, [the strait] is open” — just not for the United States, Israel, and their allies.
Trump said Monday he may postpone his long-anticipated trip to China this month, saying, “I think it’s important that I be here.”
200 US Troops Wounded, War Could Last Until September
The human cost of Operation Epic Fury continues to mount. CENTCOM spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins confirmed that approximately 200 US service members have been injured since the campaign launched on February 28. The vast majority of injuries have been minor, with more than 180 troops returned to duty. Ten remain seriously wounded.
At least 13 US military members have been killed in action.
On the Iranian side, the Red Crescent reports more than 1,300 civilian deaths. Israel says it has carried out over 7,600 strikes on Iran, knocking out 85% of its air defenses and 70% of its missile launchers.
Defense Secretary Hegseth said last week that Iranian missile volume is down 90% and drone volume is down 95% since the start of the war. Yet Iran continues launching strikes — hitting Israel with ballistic missiles, striking the Al Rashid Hotel in Baghdad’s Green Zone with a drone, and causing major disruptions at Dubai International Airport.
The UAE briefly closed its entire airspace Tuesday after reporting incoming Iranian attacks before reopening it shortly after.
Perhaps most concerning: the Daily Mail reported Monday that Trump administration officials privately fear the war could grind on through September — far longer than the quick campaign many had anticipated.
IRGC Consolidates Power as Intelligence Warns of Hardline Entrenchment
US intelligence assessments paint a sobering picture of Iran’s internal dynamics. The Washington Post reported Monday that despite withering airstrikes, officials predict “a weakened but more hard-line government in Tehran, backed by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.”
The IRGC effectively orchestrated Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader, pressuring Assembly of Experts members through “repeated contacts and psychological and political pressure” to rubber-stamp their choice. The rushed online vote on March 3 bypassed the formal electoral process.
As a Just Security analysis concluded this week: “Whether the new supreme leader survives the war may not matter much for the sustainment of the regime. In fact, Mojtaba’s death may only further entrench the IRGC and hardliners’ control.”
Iran is reportedly deploying Russian-produced Shahed drones — possibly modified — to target US bases and Gulf countries, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Meanwhile, conditions for ordinary Iranians continue to deteriorate. An internet shutdown now lasting over three weeks has devastated livelihoods. Fuel shortages are worsening after Israeli strikes hit storage facilities. Citizens remain afraid to leave their homes.
Hezbollah Opens Second Front in Lebanon
The war is expanding on multiple fronts. Hezbollah resumed rocket attacks on northern Israel after the February 28 strikes, and Israel has responded with massive bombardments of Beirut.
More than 1 million Lebanese — roughly 20% of the population — have been displaced, according to the Lebanese government. Some 850 people have been killed. Israeli troops have pushed into southern Lebanon, and there are growing fears of a large-scale invasion.
In a related development, Hamas has used the regional distraction to quietly reassert control inside Gaza. Israeli analysts say the group is “making good use” of the situation “to establish their power in the public sphere, not just for military rehabilitation.”
What Happens Next
The coming days are critical on multiple fronts:
Nowruz (March 20): If Mojtaba Khamenei fails to deliver a New Year message, it could trigger internal unrest and signal a deeper IRGC takeover of Iranian governance.
Hormuz Coalition: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to announce which countries have agreed to join the US coalition to secure the strait. The response — or lack thereof — will shape global energy markets for weeks.
Diplomatic Window: With Eid al-Fitr approaching and Ramadan ending near Nowruz, Muslim-majority countries may push for at least a temporary ceasefire. Trump says Iran is “very eager to negotiate” but “not yet prepared” for a deal.
Ground Operations: Reports of possible US Marine deployments for ground operations have circulated, though no official confirmation has come. Any boots-on-the-ground escalation would represent a dramatic widening of the conflict.
As the war enters its third week with no clear end in sight, the convergence of Iran’s leadership vacuum, the Hormuz energy crisis, allied reluctance, and Nowruz celebrations creates a volatile mix that could reshape the Middle East — and the global economy — for years to come.