Iran Draws a Red Line for Europe
As Operation Epic Fury enters its seventh day with no signs of slowing down, the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has taken a dramatic and dangerous new turn — one that now directly threatens Europe.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi issued an unmistakable warning to European nations on Friday: any country that “joins America and Israel in the aggression against Iran” will become a “legitimate target” for Iranian retaliation. The threat, delivered during an interview with France 24, sent shockwaves through European capitals already on edge from a week of escalating Middle Eastern warfare.
The warning came just hours after Israel launched what it called a “broad-scale wave of strikes” on key regime infrastructure in Tehran — and after 50 Israeli Air Force fighter jets dropped approximately 100 bombs on the underground bunker of slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, obliterating the fortified command center beneath the regime’s leadership compound in the heart of the Iranian capital.
Europol Sounds the Alarm: ‘Elevated Threat’ Across the EU
Iran’s threat to Europe isn’t just rhetoric. On Thursday, Europol — the European Union’s law enforcement agency — issued an urgent assessment warning of “an elevated threat” of terrorism and “violent extremism” on European soil as a direct consequence of the Iran conflict.
The Europol assessment went further, cautioning that groups aligned with Iran — particularly those connected to the so-called “Axis of Resistance” network operating in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen — could attempt destabilizing actions inside the EU. The agency also flagged increased risks of cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting European governments and institutions.
Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have already made their own threats explicit. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq and a Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba military adviser published separate statements warning that any European country joining the US-Israeli strike campaign will become a “legitimate target.” These aren’t idle words — militia groups have already claimed responsibility for explosions in Erbil.
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi went even further, declaring that any “defensive” European military involvement would be considered an act of war by Tehran.
The War Has Already Touched European Soil
This isn’t a hypothetical scenario. Earlier this week, Iran reportedly struck a British air base in Cyprus and launched drones toward European-linked military positions. Azerbaijan — which borders Iran — put its army on “full combat readiness” after an Iranian drone strike hit Nakhchivan International Airport, which President Ilham Aliyev called an “act of terror.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stated that the US can use British bases for “defensive” strikes on Iran — a position that Tehran has explicitly said would make the UK a target. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has called Europe “supportive” of the campaign, while EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has reportedly expressed support for regime change in Iran.
These positions put Europe squarely in Iran’s crosshairs.
Day 7: Khamenei’s Bunker Destroyed, Iran’s Military in Ruins
On the battlefield itself, Day 7 brought some of the most dramatic developments yet. The Israel Defense Forces released video footage showing approximately 50 fighter jets systematically destroying the underground bunker of slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — a fortified structure built beneath the regime’s leadership compound in central Tehran.
According to the IDF, the bunker was being actively used by senior regime officials for command and control operations. Its destruction further degrades what remains of Iran’s military leadership infrastructure.
Meanwhile, at CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa, Florida, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper provided a sobering update. According to Cooper, Iran’s combat power is “diminishing” as the US military has targeted not just conventional military assets but also Iran’s space capabilities — infrastructure that enables Tehran to move data and conduct warfare operations in space.
The Staggering Cost: $900 Million Per Day
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated that Operation Epic Fury’s first 100 hours cost approximately $3.7 billion — roughly $900 million per day. Both President Trump and Secretary Hegseth have indicated the conflict could continue for weeks.
Iran’s retaliatory capability is being systematically dismantled. According to Pentagon assessments, Iran’s ballistic missile attacks have plummeted by 90% since the campaign began. Its navy has been effectively destroyed. But Iran has still managed to fire over 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones since February 28, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency.
The war has killed more than 1,320 people, according to Lebanese and Iranian state media, and the conflict now spans 11 countries.
Trump Demands ‘Unconditional Surrender’
President Trump on Friday left no room for diplomatic ambiguity, declaring there would be “no deal” with Iran without “unconditional surrender.” The statement effectively closes the door on near-term negotiations and signals that the US-Israeli campaign will continue intensifying.
Israel’s military chief announced the country is moving to the “next phase” of the war, having already conducted 2,500 strikes with more than 6,000 weapons. The IDF said it would push deeper into Lebanon as well, targeting Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut’s southern suburbs with fresh evacuation orders.
The US and Israeli combined force has advanced to what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) describes as Phase 2 of the campaign — shifting from suppressing Iranian air defenses to systematically targeting Iran’s defense industrial assets, especially missile production facilities.
Oil, Shipping, and Economic Fallout
The economic consequences are rippling worldwide. Oil prices have surged to $85 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical shipping lane — has been effectively paralyzed. The US has temporarily allowed India to buy Russian oil amid growing energy fears, a stark indicator of how the conflict is reshaping global energy markets.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright, in an interview on Fox News, insisted the conflict’s effect on oil prices would be “temporary” and a “small price” to pay for the Pentagon’s goals in the Middle East. Markets aren’t so sure.
What Comes Next
The Iran conflict has crossed a threshold. What began as a targeted US-Israeli strike campaign against Iranian military infrastructure has expanded into a multi-front war spanning the Middle East, threatening European security, disrupting global energy markets, and killing over a thousand people in just one week.
Iran’s threat to Europe is not a bluff — it’s backed by proxy networks already embedded across the continent, cyberwarfare capabilities, and a regime that has nothing left to lose. Europol’s warning should be taken seriously by every European government.
As Phase 2 of Operation Epic Fury ramps up, the question is no longer whether this war will affect Europe. It’s how badly.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.