As the bombs continue to fall on Iranian military installations and the death toll surpasses 1,000, a dramatic twist is emerging behind the scenes: Iran has secretly reached out to the CIA to discuss terms for ending the war — even as Tehran’s surviving leaders publicly refuse to negotiate with President Trump.
The revelation, first reported by The New York Times and confirmed by multiple outlets including Reuters and CNN, adds a stunning diplomatic dimension to a conflict that has reshaped the Middle East in under a week. But U.S. officials are pouring cold water on any hopes for a quick resolution, insisting that “no active negotiations” are underway and that Operation Epic Fury is, in the words of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, “just getting started.”
Behind the Scenes: Iran’s Intelligence Ministry Makes Contact
According to the New York Times report, operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to the CIA through a third country’s spy agency just one day after the devastating February 28 strikes began. The outreach included an offer to discuss potential terms for ending the conflict.
The move is remarkable given that Iran’s surviving leadership has maintained a defiant public posture. But multiple sources tell CNN that Iranian intelligence “sent word” that it could be prepared to open talks on how to end the war. The signals were indirect — routed through intermediaries — and U.S. officials characterized them as preliminary at best.
“There are no negotiations underway,” a senior administration official told CNN flatly.
President Trump himself appeared to reference the outreach on Truth Social earlier this week, posting that Iran wanted “to talk” but that it was “too late.” The comment underscored the administration’s hardline position: the operation will continue until its objectives are met.
Adding another layer to the diplomatic intrigue, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly contacted the White House to ask whether secret talks with Iran were happening, according to Axios. The inquiry suggests even America’s closest partner in the operation is uncertain about Washington’s endgame.
The Ceasefire Dilemma: Who Can Negotiate for Iran?
Even if the U.S. wanted to engage with Iran’s outreach, there’s a fundamental problem: it’s unclear who has the authority to negotiate.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strike on February 28. Israeli strikes have systematically targeted senior IRGC commanders and government officials. The Center for International Policy noted that “with Khamenei dead and the Iranian command structure targeted, the power vacuum is not a side effect — it is the current situation.”
Officials briefed on the backchannel communications are skeptical that either side is genuinely ready for an off-ramp. The Trump administration appears committed to degrading Iran’s military capabilities to the point of no return, while Iran’s fragmented leadership may lack the coherence to deliver on any ceasefire terms.
Strait of Hormuz: The Economic Bomb Detonating in Slow Motion
While the diplomatic maneuvering plays out in the shadows, the war’s economic consequences are hitting the global economy like a freight train. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and significant volumes of LNG pass — has been effectively shut down for five days.
According to The Guardian, Iran has “in effect closed the strait of Hormuz to oil and gas exports with a mixture of drone strikes and fear that has halted commercial maritime traffic despite intense US attacks on Iran’s navy.” The IRGC has claimed “complete control” of the waterway, warning tankers that no ship would be allowed to pass.
The numbers are staggering:
- Brent crude has surged nearly 10% this week, with analysts warning prices could top $100 per barrel if disruptions continue
- War-risk insurance premiums for transiting the strait have tripled, adding roughly $250,000 per transit for large oil tankers
- 20% of global LNG exports, primarily from Qatar, are at risk
- Airlines grounded: Emirates and Etihad have suspended all flights, with Middle East airspace closures disrupting global air cargo
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to calm markets on Wednesday, telling CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the administration would announce measures to stabilize oil shipments in the Gulf. But the reality on the water tells a different story — commercial shipping has all but ceased.
“This is about as wrong as things could go for global oil markets,” NPR reported, noting that the effective Hormuz closure represents the worst-case scenario that energy analysts have warned about for decades.
Day 5 Military Update: Iran’s Navy ‘Destroyed,’ but Drones Keep Flying
On the military front, Secretary Hegseth declared Wednesday that Iran “cannot outlast” the United States, claiming the Iranian regime is “toast.” The Pentagon painted a picture of devastating battlefield success:
- 9-10 Iranian naval vessels destroyed or sunk, including the historic torpedo sinking of the IRIS Dena off Sri Lanka — the first submarine torpedo kill since World War II
- Iranian missile capability reduced by 86%, according to Pentagon assessments
- Over 1,250 targets struck across Iran, including ballistic missile hubs, naval bases, and nuclear facilities
- 50,000+ U.S. troops, 200 fighters, two aircraft carriers, and strategic bombers participating in operations
But Iran is hitting back. Drone and missile attacks have struck US embassies in Riyadh and Dubai, targeted the massive Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and hit Saudi oil infrastructure. Six American service members have been killed so far, and Hezbollah has escalated attacks on Israel from southern Lebanon.
The one bright spot for Pentagon planners: DefenseScoop reported a “noticeable reduction” in Iranian drone and missile launches over the past 24 hours, suggesting the sustained bombardment is degrading Tehran’s ability to retaliate.
The Ground War Dimension: Kurdish Fighters Cross Into Iran
In a development that dramatically expands the scope of the conflict, thousands of Kurdish fighters have launched a ground offensive into western Iran from Iraqi Kurdistan. Fox News confirmed the cross-border attack, citing a U.S. official, while CNN reported that the CIA has been actively arming Kurdish forces to spark an uprising.
The Atlantic reported that the Kurdish militants are receiving American and Israeli financial and military support. Trump himself spoke directly with Mustafa Hijri, head of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, according to Kurdish officials.
Iran denied the incursion, but the development signals a potential shift from an air campaign to something far more complex — and far harder to control.
Congress Gives Trump a Green Light
Any hopes that Congress might pump the brakes on the operation evaporated Wednesday when the Senate voted 53-47 to block a war powers resolution introduced by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) that would have forced Trump to seek congressional authorization.
The vote fell almost entirely along party lines. “If you don’t have the guts…” one Republican senator reportedly said during the debate, reflecting the hawkish consensus within the GOP. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned that senators were choosing sides: “Do you stand with the American people who are exhausted of forever wars in the Middle East? Or stand with Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth as they bumble us headfirst into another war?”
With the war powers challenge defeated, the administration has a clear political runway to continue — and potentially escalate — operations. Hegseth has repeatedly refused to rule out boots on the ground.
What Happens Next?
The conflict is at a crossroads. Iran’s secret outreach suggests that beneath the public defiance, elements of the regime recognize the military situation is dire. But the Trump administration shows no interest in negotiating from a position of dominance — instead signaling that “the hardest hits are yet to come,” as Secretary of State Marco Rubio put it.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis threatens to turn a regional conflict into a global economic emergency. Every day the waterway remains closed costs the world economy billions and pushes energy-dependent nations closer to crisis.
Netanyahu has called on Iranian citizens to “take to the streets and overthrow their rulers.” Kurdish forces are pouring across the border. And somewhere in the shadows, Iranian intelligence operatives are trying to find someone — anyone — willing to discuss how this ends.
Operation Epic Fury is entering Day 6. The fury shows no signs of abating.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.