The head of the International Energy Agency is warning that the Strait of Hormuz may no longer be seen as a dependable energy artery even if the U.S.-Iran war is settled, a sharp new sign that the crisis is moving from immediate shipping disruption into long-term damage to global energy trust.
Bloomberg, republished by gCaptain, reported Monday that IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the reputation of Hormuz as a reliable route for global energy trade may be permanently damaged by the prolonged closure and repeated attacks around the waterway.
Even if traffic returns, Birol warned, “the vase has been broken. You can’t glue it back together.” His point was blunt: once governments and energy buyers have seen Hormuz close during a war, they have to plan around the risk that it can close again.
The new angle is trust, not just traffic
That is the new development. List25 has covered tankers going dark, limited LNG passages, allied escort planning, and the diplomatic fight over who controls traffic through Hormuz. Birol’s warning moves the story one step further: even a reopening may not restore the old assumptions that made the strait function as a normal commercial chokepoint.
Before the war, Hormuz handled roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Bloomberg reported that the strait remains largely blocked while Washington and Tehran stay far apart over a framework to end the conflict. The market is already pricing that uncertainty. Brent crude climbed as much as 4.7 percent Monday before easing to about $105 a barrel by midday in London, according to the report.
That means the damage is not just physical or military. It is reputational. Insurers, refiners, utilities, tanker operators, and governments now have proof that the world’s most important energy chokepoint can become a bargaining chip for weeks, not hours.
Talks are still stuck
The warning came as the diplomatic track hit another wall. Bloomberg reported that Iran demanded an end to the U.S. naval blockade, sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, and some continued control over traffic through Hormuz, according to a person familiar with the matter. Iran also wants any agreement to stop fighting across the region, including in Lebanon.
President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s reply on Sunday, calling it “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” in a social media post. Bloomberg reported that Trump had proposed allowing shipping through Hormuz while Washington ended its blockade of Iranian ports, with nuclear talks to follow.
Al Jazeera reported Monday that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei called Washington’s demands “unreasonable” and “one-sided.” Baghaei said Iran’s own proposal was “legitimate” and “generous,” arguing that Tehran was asking for an end to the war, the lifting of what he called a blockade and piracy, and the release of Iranian assets frozen under U.S. pressure.
That gap matters because the ceasefire may still be holding, but the economic system around Hormuz is not back to normal. Bloomberg reported that Saudi Aramco has warned it would take several months for the market to normalize even if the strait reopened immediately.
Ships are moving by exception
The strait is not completely frozen. Reuters, republished by BOE Report, reported Monday that a second Qatari LNG tanker, Mihzem, is transiting Hormuz toward Pakistan’s Port Qasim after the Al Kharaitiyat crossed over the weekend. The shipment is part of a limited arrangement involving Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan, with two more Qatari LNG tankers expected to head toward Pakistan in the coming days, according to sources cited by Reuters.
But that only reinforces Birol’s point. A handful of politically managed cargoes can move, but that is not the same thing as a trusted open sea lane. Reuters reported that Pakistan has been pressing Iran to allow a limited number of LNG tankers through because Islamabad urgently needs gas supplies. Earlier this month, UAE’s ADNOC moved two LNG tankers through the strait after their tracking signals were switched off, according to shipping data cited by Reuters.
In other words, Hormuz is functioning less like a normal international waterway and more like a case-by-case permission system. That is a much bigger problem for the global economy than a single delayed cargo.
Europe is becoming part of the pressure point
Al Jazeera also reported that the United Kingdom and France are preparing to host a virtual meeting of defense ministers on Tuesday about plans to restore trade flows through the strait. Baghaei warned European countries not to make moves that would, in Tehran’s view, complicate the crisis further.
That puts Hormuz in a dangerous middle ground. The U.S. wants shipping reopened, Iran wants leverage and relief, Gulf states need energy exports to move, and European governments are discussing maritime security options. Every added actor makes the waterway harder to stabilize without a clear political deal.
Why this matters now
The immediate question is whether Washington and Tehran can restart talks after Trump’s rejection. The deeper question is whether Hormuz can ever return to its prewar status in the minds of energy planners.
If Birol is right, the crisis has already changed the market even before a final deal or a new round of fighting. Tankers may eventually move again. Prices may eventually calm. But the old confidence that Hormuz would remain open because the world needed it open has been cracked.
That is why this warning lands hard. The Strait of Hormuz does not have to be closed forever to reshape global energy strategy. It only has to prove it can be closed long enough for everyone to start looking for a way around it.
Sources: Bloomberg via gCaptain, Al Jazeera, Reuters via BOE Report.