Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply below normal despite U.S. claims that oil volumes are recovering, according to new maritime data, keeping the Iran crisis centered on the world’s most sensitive energy chokepoint.
The latest figures add a fresh economic and maritime angle to the crisis. Washington has argued that U.S.-assisted routes are keeping oil moving, while Tehran continues to use the strait as leverage after months of strikes, sanctions and threats to commercial shipping. But vessel-count data published Thursday shows the waterway is still operating at a fraction of its pre-war rhythm.
Argus Media, citing maritime security firm Windward, reported that only nine vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday: four inbound and five outbound. Argus said that was about 6.5% of pre-war traffic, compared with an average of roughly 135 vessels a day before the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28.
The same report said some vessels are using a U.S.-assisted southern lane, while others continue to move through an Iranian-controlled northern lane. That split matters because the crisis is no longer simply about whether the strait is open or closed. It is about who controls the route, how much traffic is willing to risk it and whether commercial shipping can return without a wider settlement.
Traffic Numbers Challenge The Recovery Message
The new data complicates the White House’s public message. Argus reported that President Donald Trump posted a graphic Thursday claiming “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK,” saying 18 million barrels per day of crude were exiting the strait. Vice President JD Vance also said 15 million barrels of crude had exited the strait overnight.
Argus noted that broader vessel-tracking data does not support a full return to normal. Citing TankerTrackers.com, the outlet reported that over the 28 complete days through September 2, average flows out of the Middle East Gulf were 7.54 million barrels per day, including 5.04 million barrels per day through Hormuz.
CBS News also reported that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels. CBS cited Lloyd’s List Intelligence data showing 102 transits last week, down from 126 the week before and far below pre-war levels of 130 or more transits per day.
That is the key point for markets and militaries: oil is still moving, but the pattern is abnormal, risky and expensive. Argus reported that the rate for a very large crude carrier moving oil from the Middle East Gulf through Hormuz to Asia-Pacific reached $19.39 per barrel on September 2, an all-time high and a steep premium over routes that avoid the strait.
Why Hormuz Is Still The Pressure Point
The Strait of Hormuz is narrow, crowded and globally important. Before the war, it carried a major share of the world’s seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Even partial disruption can raise shipping costs, insurance rates, fuel prices and military risk across the Gulf.
That is why the latest traffic data is more than a shipping-market detail. It shows that the crisis is still imposing a tax on global energy movement even when tankers continue to get through. The U.S. can help escort or guide some traffic, but normal commercial confidence has not returned.
Al Jazeera reported that Iranian Petroleum Minister Mohsen Paknejad said Iran’s oil industry is continuing to “circumvent” the U.S. blockade, describing the situation as difficult but manageable. The same live coverage reported that Vance said all options remain on the table against Iran and ruled out talks unless Tehran stops attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
That condition turns shipping security into the first test for any diplomatic off-ramp. If attacks and threats continue, Washington says talks remain frozen. If traffic stabilizes and Iran reduces pressure on commercial shipping, the U.S. may have more room to argue that coercion worked and that negotiations can resume.
The Wider Crisis Is Still Active
The shipping numbers landed after another round of regional escalation. An Associated Press report republished by Sentinel Colorado said Iran fired on U.S. allies in the Gulf after American bombardments of Iranian targets. The AP reported that sirens sounded in Kuwait as air defenses intercepted missile and drone attacks, and that the fighting had escalated after U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on an island in the Strait of Hormuz.
The AP also reported disputed Iranian state-media claims that a U.S. strike hit a wedding gathering in Kuhestak, killing four people and wounding dozens. CBS reported that Vance said he was “extremely skeptical” of Iran’s claim and said the U.S. military was reviewing the allegation.
For now, the clearest new signal is that Hormuz is not back to normal. The waterway is still functioning, but at crisis levels, with commercial traffic constrained, tanker costs elevated and both sides using shipping data to shape the political narrative.
Featured image: Strait of Hormuz satellite view. Public domain image via NASA/Wikimedia Commons.
Sources: Argus Media; CBS News; Al Jazeera; Associated Press via Sentinel Colorado.