The Gulf’s Stunning About-Face
Eighteen days into Operation Epic Fury, the geopolitical ground beneath the Middle East has shifted in ways few predicted. The same Gulf Arab states that initially condemned the US-Israeli strikes on Iran are now privately — and increasingly publicly — urging Washington to finish what it started.
According to a bombshell Reuters report published Monday, multiple Gulf sources confirm that leaders across the region want President Trump to comprehensively degrade Iran’s military capacity. The alternative, they say, is living under perpetual threat.
“There is a wide feeling across the Gulf that Iran has crossed every red line with every Gulf country,” said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center. “At first we defended them and opposed the war. But once they began directing strikes at us, they became an enemy. There is no other way to classify them.”
The reversal is staggering — and it tells you everything about how the last 18 days have reshaped the region.
200 US Troops Wounded — CENTCOM Breaks Silence on Casualties
The Pentagon has been tight-lipped about American losses since Operation Epic Fury launched on February 28. That silence broke Monday when US Central Command confirmed to The Guardian that approximately 200 US service members have been wounded since the start of the conflict.
“The vast majority of these injuries have been minor,” said CENTCOM spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins, adding that 180 troops have returned to duty. But ABC News, citing an unnamed US official, reported injuries including burns, shrapnel wounds, and traumatic brain injuries (TBIs). At least 10 military personnel are classified as “seriously wounded.”
The death toll stands at 13 US service members killed. Six crew members died when a US military refueling plane crashed in western Iraq. Six more were killed when an Iranian drone struck an operations center at a civilian port in Kuwait. A seventh, Sergeant Benjamin Pennington, 26, of Glendale, Kentucky, died on March 8 from injuries sustained in an enemy attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
On the Iranian side, the numbers are far higher — at least 1,348 civilians killed according to Iran’s UN representative, with human rights organizations estimating 1,444 dead including at least 206 children. In Lebanon, where the conflict has escalated into a full-blown war with Hezbollah, 912 people have been killed. Fifteen have died in Israel.
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Missile Targeting US Base
In one of the most alarming developments of the day, Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry confirmed early Wednesday that it intercepted a ballistic missile targeting the area around Prince Sultan Air Base in Al-Kharj — the same base that houses US military personnel and aircraft.
“A ballistic missile launched toward Alkharj Governorate was intercepted and destroyed, with interception debris falling around Prince Sultan Air Base causing no damage,” the Saudi defense ministry posted on X.
This isn’t the first time Prince Sultan has been targeted. On March 13, five USAF Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft were moderately damaged by an Iranian missile strike at the base. And Sergeant Pennington received his fatal wounds there on March 1.
Iran’s attacks have now struck across all six Gulf Cooperation Council states. Qatar reported 14 ballistic missiles fired at the country on Monday, intercepting 13. The UAE briefly closed its entire airspace after a drone struck a fuel tank near Dubai International Airport, forcing the temporary suspension of all flights.
Iran’s Military Losing Ground — But Striking Back
Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, delivered a firm assessment on March 16: the United States has effectively crushed Iran’s navy. CENTCOM has shifted from neutralizing immediate missile and drone threats to targeting Iran’s “wider manufacturing apparatus” and defense industrial base.
Recent strikes have hit deep into Iranian territory. A military depot in Yazd Province, confirmed by CENTCOM to be associated with “IRGC missile command infrastructure,” was destroyed. The site had been used to build both light and heavyweight torpedoes. In one of the easternmost strikes since the war began, the combined force targeted a suspected Iranian drone facility in South Khorasan Province.
But Iran is far from finished. The Islamic Republic has fired over 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones since February 28, according to Fars News Agency. The Iranian Army’s commander-in-chief has vowed revenge for the killing of Ali Larijani, the highest-ranking Iranian official eliminated since former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the conflict.
The IRGC also confirmed the death of the commander of the Basij paramilitary force. Meanwhile, a fire was reported at the US Embassy compound in Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone, with images showing flames engulfing part of the grounds.
The Hormuz Crisis: Oil Down 60%, Prices Through the Roof
If the human cost is devastating, the economic fallout is reshaping global markets. Daily oil exports from the Persian Gulf have plummeted by at least 60% in the week to March 15 compared to February, according to Reuters shipping data. Oil prices have surged roughly 40% in March alone, with crude trading near $100 per barrel.
The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes — remains effectively closed. At least 500 tankers are trapped, and 16 ships have been attacked in the Persian Gulf since the conflict began. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed to keep the strait closed and avenge “the blood of its martyrs.”
Experts are calling it the biggest disruption to global oil supplies in history.
“Now that Iran has shown it can shut down Hormuz, the Gulf faces a fundamentally different threat,” said Bernard Haykel, professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University.
US airlines are already feeling the pinch, adding hundreds of millions of dollars in fuel costs. Countries worldwide have begun releasing emergency oil reserves to stabilize their economies.
Trump’s Contradictory Signals
President Trump has sent mixed signals throughout the crisis. On Sunday, he called on roughly seven NATO allies to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. By Tuesday, he reversed course, telling reporters he did not “need or desire” help from NATO allies.
The contradiction has frustrated both allies and adversaries. Trump also announced he would delay a planned visit to China because of the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, White House officials pushed back on reports that Vice President JD Vance has been distant from the Operation Epic Fury decision-making process.
In Congress, a resolution to invoke the War Powers Act failed narrowly at 212-219, underscoring the slim political margin supporting the operation.
Iran’s Internal Crackdown Intensifies
Inside Iran, the regime has escalated its domestic repression even as bombs fall. According to the BBC and the Institute for the Study of War, Iran has started targeting individuals with Starlink satellite internet access and has reduced the availability of VPNs — cutting off the remaining digital lifelines for citizens trying to access uncensored information.
The crackdown comes as CENTCOM strikes have expanded to include law enforcement targets. US and Israeli forces struck Law Enforcement Command stations in Tehran’s Navab and Enghelab neighborhoods on March 14 — sites central to the regime’s internal repression apparatus.
What Comes Next
Day 18 of Operation Epic Fury has made one thing clear: this conflict is expanding, not contracting. Gulf states that wanted no part of this war are now its biggest advocates. American casualties are mounting. Iran’s military is degraded but still capable of striking across the region. And the global economy is buckling under the weight of a paralyzed Strait of Hormuz.
The question is no longer whether the US will finish the job — it’s what “finished” looks like in a region where every strike creates new enemies, new grievances, and new calculations.
As Abdulaziz Sager of the Gulf Research Center put it bluntly: “If the Americans pull out before the task is complete, we’ll be left to confront Iran on our own.”
Eighteen days in, nobody in the Gulf wants that.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as the situation evolves.