As Operation Epic Fury enters its 11th day, the conflict is rapidly expanding beyond U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian missile barrages. France has announced a massive naval deployment to the Middle East, Iran’s new supreme leader has rejected all ceasefire calls, and a classified U.S. intelligence report is casting serious doubt on whether the war can achieve its stated goal of regime change.
France Mobilizes Dozen Warships to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
In a dramatic escalation of European involvement, French President Emmanuel Macron announced Monday that France will deploy approximately a dozen warships — including the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, eight frigates, and two amphibious helicopter carriers — to the Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz.
Macron made the announcement from Cyprus, where he visited the Charles de Gaulle and held emergency talks with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The deployment comes after an Iranian drone attack struck a Cyprus-based joint operating installation, dragging European nations closer to direct involvement.
“We are in the process of setting up a purely defensive, purely escort mission, which must be prepared together with both European and non-European states,” Macron said. The mission’s purpose: to escort container ships and oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz once the “most intense phase” of the conflict ends, gradually reopening the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Since the war began on February 28, tanker traffic through the strait has been virtually choked off, sending oil prices surging to four-year highs above $120 per barrel before tumbling back after Trump suggested the war could end “very soon.”
Iran’s New Supreme Leader Rejects Ceasefire, Vows Continued Resistance
Any hopes that the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei — the son of assassinated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — might open the door to negotiations were dashed within hours. Iran’s foreign minister flatly rejected calls for a ceasefire, declaring: “We need to continue fighting for the sake of our people.”
The 55-year-old Mojtaba, selected by the Assembly of Experts on March 8, has rallied Iran’s security establishment around him. Iranian politicians and institutions have issued pledges of loyalty, and Tehran crowds greeted the announcement by chanting “God’s hand is still upon us, Khamenei is still our leader.” His father, wife, son, and mother were all killed in the opening U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28.
Under Mojtaba’s first hours as supreme leader, Iran launched fresh missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia — expanding the war’s geographic footprint across the Gulf. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned they would not allow “one drop of oil” to flow through the Strait of Hormuz while the country is under attack.
Trump’s Contradictory Signals: ‘Very Complete’ vs. ‘We Haven’t Won Enough’
President Trump sent wildly mixed signals on Day 10, telling CBS News that the war is “very complete, pretty much” and “very far ahead of schedule,” while later telling House Republicans behind closed doors that “we haven’t won enough.” He had previously set a four-week timeline for the operation but now suggests it could end well before that.
Trump also declared Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment “unacceptable” and told Fox News host Brian Kilmeade by phone that he was “not happy” about the selection. The president has indicated he wants an “internal” candidate to lead Iran — referencing his Venezuela playbook where Nicolás Maduro was replaced. But there’s a critical problem with that strategy.
Classified Intel Report: Regime Change ‘Unlikely’ Through Military Action
According to the Washington Post, a classified U.S. intelligence assessment recently predicted that Iran’s regime would be able to hold onto power even under extended U.S. military bombardment. The report warns that Iran’s opposition forces are too fragmented and disorganized to seize power following either a short or prolonged American campaign.
This directly contradicts the stated war aim. The House of Commons Library in the UK confirmed that the U.S. and Israel began strikes on February 28 with the explicit goal of “regime change and targeting Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme.” If the intelligence community’s assessment is correct, Operation Epic Fury may destroy Iran’s military infrastructure without achieving its primary political objective.
The War by the Numbers: Day 11
The scale of Operation Epic Fury is staggering. Here’s where things stand:
- U.S. casualties: 7 service members killed in action, with another 8 “seriously” injured still fighting for their lives. All casualties occurred during the first weekend (Feb. 28 – March 1) from Iranian counterstrikes. No deaths have occurred since.
- Iranian casualties: At least 1,230 people killed in Iran, according to reports. The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported over 6,668 civilian sites targeted by U.S.-Israeli strikes as of March 7.
- Lebanon: 397 killed from Israeli operations against Hezbollah.
- Israel: 11 killed from Iranian missile strikes.
- U.S. forces deployed: More than 50,000 troops, 200 fighter aircraft, two aircraft carrier strike groups, and strategic bombers.
- Iranian ordnance expended: Over 500 ballistic and naval missiles, nearly 2,000 drones since February 28.
- Cost: CSIS estimates the first 100 hours alone cost $3.7 billion.
- Targets destroyed: More than 3,000 Iranian military targets hit, including IRGC headquarters, missile launchers, nuclear facilities, and — for the first time on Day 9 — oil storage depots and refining facilities.
Global Economic Fallout Deepens
The economic shockwaves are hitting every corner of the globe. Oil prices spiked above $120 per barrel before retreating on Trump’s comments about a quick end. Global financial markets have been seesawing as investors try to gauge whether Iran’s security establishment will hold or crack.
India has invoked the Essential Commodities Act to ensure uninterrupted supplies of cooking gas, directing refineries to maximize LPG production. Saudi Aramco’s CEO said contingency plans are ready to protect supplies. The U.S. has ordered government employees to leave Saudi Arabia as Iranian counterstrikes continue targeting Gulf states.
ISW (Institute for the Study of War) reports that the combined U.S.-Israeli force has “severely degraded Iran’s missile and drone capabilities,” with the campaign now advancing to its next phase: targeting Iranian defense industrial assets, especially missile production facilities. The first phase suppressed Iran’s air defenses and nuclear infrastructure.
What Comes Next?
Day 11 presents a war at a crossroads. The military campaign has devastated Iran’s military infrastructure — its air force and navy have suffered catastrophic losses, its missile stocks are being depleted, and its nuclear facilities have been struck. But Iran’s regime shows no sign of collapsing.
The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei signals continuity and defiance, not capitulation. France’s naval deployment suggests European nations are preparing for a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies. And the classified U.S. intelligence assessment raises uncomfortable questions about whether there’s an achievable endgame.
As Secretary of State Marco Rubio put it: the U.S. wants “an Iranian government that no longer threatens the American people, threatens our allies and threatens the world, and holds the world’s energy supplies hostage through both its missiles and its navy.” Whether bombing alone can deliver that outcome remains the central, unanswered question of Operation Epic Fury.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as the situation evolves.