The war against Iran has entered its third week — and it’s no longer contained to Iranian territory. On Day 21 of Operation Epic Fury, the conflict has metastasized into a full-blown regional energy crisis, with Iranian missiles slamming into oil and gas infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Brent crude briefly surged past $119 a barrel before settling around $107 — still more than 60% above pre-war levels.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon has formally requested an additional $200 billion in war funding, and the biggest crack yet has appeared in the US-Israel alliance: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is openly calling for a “ground component” in Iran, while President Donald Trump insists he won’t be “putting troops anywhere.”
Here’s everything you need to know as the Iran war reshapes the entire Middle East.
Iran Strikes Back Across the Gulf
The chain of escalation that has engulfed the Gulf began on March 18, when Israel — acting unilaterally, according to both Israeli and US officials — struck Iran’s South Pars natural gas field, part of the largest gas reserves on Earth. The attack on the field in Bushehr Province triggered an immediate and devastating Iranian response.
Tehran warned that all “prominent regional oil and gas targets” belonging to US allies were now “direct and legitimate targets” and should be evacuated immediately. Within hours, Iranian missiles were flying across the Persian Gulf.
The damage has been staggering:
- Qatar: Iranian missiles struck Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export facility. QatarEnergy reported “extensive damage” that has reduced the country’s LNG export capacity by 17%. The state energy giant estimates it will lose $20 billion in annual revenue, and repairs could take up to five years.
- Saudi Arabia: Iran hit the SAMREF refinery in the Red Sea port city of Yanbu — a facility Saudi Arabia had been using to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and pump oil westward through alternative routes. An Iranian drone strike targeted the refinery. On March 20, Saudi Arabia also intercepted a missile over its northern Al Jouf region.
- UAE: Heavy explosions rocked Dubai early Friday as air defenses intercepted incoming fire over the city during Eid al-Fitr celebrations. Gas facilities in Abu Dhabi were also shut down after missile interceptions.
- Kuwait: Two oil refineries were targeted by Iranian strikes.
A vessel was set ablaze off the UAE’s coast, and another was damaged off Qatar — underscoring the extreme danger to commercial shipping in the region.
Oil at $119 and the ‘Doomsday Scenario’
The energy impact of Iran’s Gulf-wide retaliation has been immediate and severe. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, briefly surged above $119 per barrel on Thursday — up more than 60% since the war began on February 28, when oil sat around $72.
European natural gas prices have roughly doubled in the past month. Saudi officials have privately warned that if the conflict continues to disrupt energy supplies through late April, oil prices could climb beyond $180 per barrel, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil transits — remains under Iran’s effective stranglehold. Tanker traffic through the strait has dropped by approximately 70%, and over 150 commercial ships have been diverted or halted since Iran’s campaign of attacks on merchant vessels began. As of mid-March, Iran has launched at least 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships.
The UK and five other nations announced they are “ready to contribute” to ensuring safe passage through the strait, and the International Maritime Organization has begun talks with Iran and regional powers over commercial transit.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that surging oil prices will likely prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates in the near future, adding financial market anxiety to the already severe energy shock. Trump’s Treasury Secretary has even floated the paradoxical idea of lifting sanctions on some Iranian oil to ease global prices — a remarkable admission of the economic pressure the war has created.
Pentagon Demands $200 Billion — ‘It Takes Money to Kill Bad Guys’
The financial cost of Operation Epic Fury is rapidly becoming a political issue. The Pentagon has formally requested an additional $200 billion in war funding from Congress, according to senior administration and military officials.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended the request during a Pentagon briefing, saying bluntly: “It takes money to kill bad guys.” He added that the final figure “could move” depending on how the conflict develops.
Trump’s National Economic Council director, Kevin Hassett, has acknowledged the war has already cost tens of billions. The $200 billion request — if approved — would make the Iran campaign one of the most expensive US military operations in decades, rivaling the early years of the Iraq War.
The staggering price tag comes as the Trump administration simultaneously grapples with soaring domestic energy costs, stock market volatility, and growing bipartisan concerns about the war’s scope. A congressional resolution to limit the president’s war authority failed in a narrow 212-219 House vote earlier this month.
Netanyahu Wants Ground Troops — Trump Says No
The most significant diplomatic development of Day 21 may be the widening rift between Washington and Jerusalem over the war’s endgame.
In a televised press conference Thursday evening, Netanyahu declared that Iran is “weaker than ever” and can no longer produce ballistic missiles or enrich uranium — though he offered no evidence. He said the war would end “a lot faster than people think.”
But then came the bombshell: Netanyahu openly stated that airstrikes alone wouldn’t be enough to achieve regime change in Iran.
“It is often said that you can’t win, you can’t do revolutions from the air. That is true,” Netanyahu said. “There has to be a ground component as well. There are many possibilities for this ground component, and I take the liberty of not sharing with you all those possibilities.”
He added that the Iranian people must ultimately “rise to the moment” — language that analysts interpreted as encouraging an internal uprising, supported by some form of ground operation.
Trump pushed back hard. When asked about boots on the ground at the White House — where he was hosting Japan’s new prime minister — Trump was blunt: “I’m not putting troops anywhere — and if I was, I wouldn’t tell you.”
This follows Trump’s earlier rebuke of Israel over the South Pars gas field strike. Trump confirmed he told Netanyahu directly: “Don’t do that.” Netanyahu acknowledged the attack was solely an Israeli operation and that Trump was not informed in advance.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio added another layer, disclosing that the US may have been drawn into the conflict because of Israel’s initial intention to strike Iranian leadership, which would have jeopardized American forces in the region.
Israel Strikes Tehran on Nowruz
As Iranians marked Nowruz — the Persian New Year, one of the most important cultural celebrations in the country — Israel launched fresh airstrikes on Tehran overnight. Activists reported hearing strikes around the capital during the early morning hours of March 20.
The timing was seen as deeply symbolic and inflammatory. Iran, now led by the son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — who was killed in the war’s opening strikes on February 28 — has vowed that the killing of its leadership will “destroy global legal norms.”
Iran has continued launching missiles and drones at Israel, sending millions to shelters. Sirens sounded across northern Israel from Haifa to the Galilee. More than a dozen missile launches were recorded on Thursday alone.
The UN Steps In — But Can Anyone Stop This?
The United Nations Security Council held an emergency closed session Thursday at the urging of Gulf states. Bahrain’s UN Ambassador Jamal Alrowaiei, speaking as the Arab representative, said Gulf countries stressed the immediate need for Iran to halt its attacks.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron called for a “moratorium on strikes targeting civilian infrastructure,” especially water and energy facilities. He spoke with both the Emir of Qatar and Trump.
The UAE announced Friday that it had disrupted “a terrorist network funded and operated by Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran” — a reminder that the conflict has tentacles far beyond conventional military operations.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, warned the UK that allowing the US to use British military bases constituted “participation in aggression” and would be “recorded in the history of relations between the two countries.”
Where Does This Go From Here?
Three weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the war has achieved many of its stated military objectives: Iran’s nuclear enrichment capability appears degraded, its ballistic missile program has been severely damaged, its navy has been gutted, and its top leadership — including the supreme leader — has been killed.
But the costs are spiraling. Oil prices are crushing global markets. The Gulf states that were supposed to benefit from Iran’s weakening are instead watching their own infrastructure burn. The US-Israel alliance is showing cracks over strategy and endgame. And a $200 billion Pentagon price tag is just the beginning.
As one Sky News correspondent put it: “The way it’s unravelling… I just can’t see how he’s going to be able to tick any of the ‘war aim’ boxes.”
The war that was supposed to end Iran’s threat to the region has instead become a threat to the entire region itself. Day 21 has made that painfully clear.
This is a developing story. List25 will continue to provide updates as the situation evolves.