The World’s Most Important Waterway Is Effectively Shut Down
Eleven days into Operation Epic Fury, the US-Israel war against Iran has triggered something the global economy feared most: the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Ship traffic through the narrow waterway — which normally handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply — has collapsed from approximately 100 vessels per day to just two or three, according to shipping data. The result has been the most dramatic oil price shock since 2022, with Brent crude surging as high as $119.50 per barrel on Monday before tumbling back down after President Trump signaled the conflict could end “very soon.”
But energy analysts are warning that Trump’s optimism may not match reality on the ground — or on the water.
A Day of Wild Swings: From $120 to Below $90
Monday, March 9 — Day 10 of the war — saw one of the most volatile trading sessions in oil market history. Brent crude opened with a massive surge, rocketing past the psychologically critical $100 mark for the first time since 2022, then blowing straight through $110 and nearly touching $120.
Global stock markets cratered. The Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all plunged in early trading as investors scrambled to price in the possibility of a prolonged energy crisis.
Then came Trump’s press conference in Florida.
“It’s going to be ended soon,” the president told reporters. “Very soon.” He also floated the idea of having the US Navy escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and offered political risk insurance to shipping companies willing to make the transit.
The effect was immediate. Oil prices plunged as much as 10% from their highs, with Brent dropping below $90 by Tuesday morning. But analysts cautioned that the underlying problem — a near-complete halt in Hormuz shipping — remains unsolved.
“I don’t think there’s a quick fix,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service. The promise of future naval escorts, he noted, does little to address the fundamental risk of transiting a war zone.
G7 Holds Emergency Meeting — But No Oil Release Yet
The oil shock prompted the G7 to convene emergency sessions. Finance ministers from the seven industrialized nations held a conference call Monday and said they stood ready to take “necessary measures” to support global energy supplies.
But crucially, they did not approve a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves — the most powerful tool at their disposal.
According to CNBC, G7 energy ministers were scheduled to hold a follow-up virtual meeting Tuesday morning to continue discussions on a possible joint reserve release coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The hesitation is notable. During Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the IEA coordinated the release of 182 million barrels from member country reserves. But the current crisis presents a fundamentally different challenge: while the Ukraine war disrupted supply from one major producer, the Hormuz closure affects exports from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE simultaneously.
Oil prices have now risen more than 50% since the start of 2026, when Brent sat at roughly $60 per barrel.
IRGC Issues Chilling Warning: ‘Not Even One Litre’
Escalating the economic dimension of the conflict, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a stark warning on Tuesday: if US-Israeli attacks continue, “not even one litre of oil” would be allowed to leave the Persian Gulf.
The threat underscores Iran’s awareness that the Strait of Hormuz remains its most powerful asymmetric weapon. While the US and Israel enjoy overwhelming conventional military superiority — with over 50,000 troops, 200 fighter aircraft, two carrier strike groups, and strategic bombers now engaged — Iran’s ability to choke global energy markets gives it leverage that missiles and drones alone cannot provide.
Iran has already fired over 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones since the war began on February 28, according to Fars News Agency. But those attacks, while deadly, have been largely absorbed by coalition air defenses. The Hormuz closure, by contrast, is inflicting damage that no missile defense system can stop.
Seven Americans Dead as War Enters Second Week
The Pentagon on Monday identified the seventh US service member killed since Operation Epic Fury began. Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington, 26, of Kentucky — a Space Brigade sergeant assigned to the Army’s missile defense command — died at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia from injuries sustained in an Iranian attack.
Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attended a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base, receiving the remains of fallen service members.
The seven deaths represent the highest US combat casualties in any single operation since the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Five of the seven were killed in a single Iranian drone and missile attack on Port Shuaiba in Kuwait on March 1.
Trump, asked at his press conference how many American casualties he was willing to accept, deflected but warned that the US would “strike Iran harder” if needed.
Strikes Expand to IRGC and Oil Infrastructure
Military operations have entered a new phase. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), US and Israeli forces are now systematically targeting Iran’s internal security apparatus — including IRGC headquarters, Basij militia infrastructure, and Law Enforcement Command (LEC) facilities across multiple provinces.
On March 8-9 alone, strikes hit:
- The Esfahan City LEC Headquarters
- IRGC headquarters and LEC police stations in Khorramabad, Lorestan Province
- Oil storage depots and refining facilities, including the Shehran oil depot in Tehran
- Missile production facilities as part of the campaign’s second phase targeting Iran’s defense industrial base
Black smoke billowed over Tehran on Saturday and Sunday as fires raged at struck oil facilities. The targeting of energy infrastructure represents a significant escalation — the US and Israel had initially avoided Iran’s oil sector, likely to prevent exactly the kind of global price spike now unfolding.
The $3.7 Billion War — and Counting
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury cost approximately $3.7 billion. With Trump and Hegseth signaling the conflict could continue for weeks, the final price tag will be substantially higher.
But the direct military cost pales in comparison to the economic damage. Goldman Sachs analysts have warned that oil could breach $150 per barrel if the Hormuz crisis persists for more than a few weeks. India is already reporting LPG shortages, with hotels in Chennai, Bengaluru, and Mumbai issuing shutdown alerts.
Intel Community Skeptical of Regime Change
Perhaps the most significant development came not from the battlefield but from Washington. The Washington Post reported that a classified US intelligence assessment concluded that Iran’s regime would likely survive even an extended American military campaign.
The report casts doubt on the stated war aim of regime change, noting that Iran’s opposition forces are too fragmented and lack the organizational capacity to seize power even if the current government is severely weakened.
This assessment creates a fundamental tension at the heart of American strategy: if regime change is the goal but intelligence agencies believe it’s unachievable through military means, what does an endgame look like?
Trump appeared to acknowledge this tension obliquely at his Florida press conference, telling reporters the war was “very complete, pretty much” while simultaneously refusing to say it would end this week.
What Comes Next
As Day 11 begins, the war shows no signs of slowing. Iran continues launching attacks against Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia under its new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — the slain Ayatollah’s son, whose appointment signaled that hardliners remain firmly in control.
The G7 energy ministers’ meeting on Tuesday could prove pivotal. A coordinated reserve release would signal to markets that the world’s largest economies are prepared to intervene directly. Without it, oil prices could resume their upward march.
Meanwhile, the US has ordered government employees to leave Saudi Arabia and Turkey, a precautionary move that suggests Washington expects the conflict zone to expand rather than contract.
Eleven days in, Operation Epic Fury has achieved many of its military objectives — degrading Iran’s nuclear program, killing the Supreme Leader, and dismantling IRGC infrastructure. But the economic blowback may prove harder to manage than any missile defense challenge.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the war’s center of gravity. Until ships move freely through it again, the entire global economy is holding its breath.