Trump Sends Mixed Signals on War’s End as Markets Whipsaw
As the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran enters its 10th day, President Donald Trump declared from his Doral, Florida golf club that the conflict is “very complete” and will end “very soon” — while simultaneously threatening to hit Iran harder than ever before.
The conflicting signals sent global markets on a wild rollercoaster ride Monday. Oil prices spiked above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 before crashing back to around $85 after Trump’s optimistic comments. U.S. stocks rebounded sharply in the afternoon after initially nosediving on fears of a prolonged conflict.
“We’ve wiped every single force in Iran out, very completely,” Trump told reporters. “They have no leadership. It’s all been blown up.”
But when pressed on whether the war would end this week, the President said flatly: “No.” He then added: “Very soon.”
Asked to square that with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s remarks that the campaign was “just getting started,” Trump said: “Well, I think you could say both.”
Iran Names Khamenei’s Son as New Supreme Leader
In a dramatic development that could reshape the trajectory of the conflict, Iran’s Assembly of Experts on Saturday named Mojtaba Khamenei — the 56-year-old son of slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — as the country’s new supreme leader.
The elder Khamenei was killed on February 28, the first day of the war, when Israeli strikes targeted Iranian leadership. His death was announced by Trump on Truth Social.
The selection of Mojtaba, a hardline Shi’ite cleric with deep ties to the Revolutionary Guards and their vast business empire, dashed any hopes that the war might lead to a more moderate Iranian government willing to negotiate.
“It was a slap in the face to our enemies that thought the system will collapse with the killing of his father,” said one Tehran university student, speaking to Reuters. “Our late leader’s path will continue.”
Iranian state television switched from somber wartime coverage to upbeat revolutionary anthems as massive crowds rallied in cities across Iran, waving flags and holding portraits of both the slain and new supreme leaders. In Isfahan, state TV reported the sound of nearby explosions from airstrikes even as loyalists chanted “God is the Greatest” in the historic Imam Square.
Trump has already declared Mojtaba Khamenei “unacceptable” and demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender — a position that virtually guarantees the conflict will continue.
Seventh U.S. Soldier Killed in Action
The Pentagon on Monday identified the seventh American service member killed during Operation Epic Fury. Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington, 26, of Glendale, Kentucky, died on March 8 from wounds sustained during an Iranian attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 1.
Pennington was assigned to the 1st Space Battalion, 1st Space Brigade, based at Fort Carson, Colorado. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear released a statement extending condolences to Pennington’s family.
The seven American deaths include six soldiers killed in the March 1 Iranian missile and drone attack on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, along with Sgt. Pennington, who fought for a week before succumbing to his injuries.
According to CENTCOM commander Gen. Brad Cooper, more than 50,000 U.S. troops, 200 fighter aircraft, two aircraft carrier strike groups, and strategic bombers are currently engaged in the operation. The U.S. military has struck over 3,000 targets across Iran since the campaign began.
Oil Markets in Chaos — Strait of Hormuz Standoff Intensifies
The economic fallout from the war reached a critical new phase on Monday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a stark warning that Tehran would not allow “one liter of oil” to leave the region if U.S.-Israeli attacks continue — directly threatening the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows.
Only a handful of commercial vessels are currently moving through the Strait, according to oil analyst Matt Smith of energy consulting firm Kpler.
Trump fired back with his most aggressive threat yet: “We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world.”
The president said he would waive oil-related sanctions, have the U.S. Navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and predicted oil prices would ultimately fall as a result of the conflict. Bloomberg reported that Trump insisted “I have a plan” as he confronted mounting economic and political pressure.
The CSIS think tank estimated the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury cost approximately $3.7 billion.
Trump Claims Iran Had Secret Nuclear Site
Adding another layer of justification for the war, Trump claimed Monday that Iran had been developing a previously unknown nuclear weapons site. The president offered few details but used the claim to argue that the strikes were necessary to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear capability.
U.S. officials have primarily framed the war’s objectives as destroying Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear program, though Trump has repeatedly said the war can only end with a “compliant” Iranian government — essentially regime change.
However, a classified U.S. intelligence report obtained by the Washington Post last week warned that a large-scale military campaign is “unlikely” to oust Iran’s regime. The report predicted that Iran’s opposition would struggle to take power following either a short or extended U.S. campaign.
Israel Expands Strikes to Oil Infrastructure and Lebanon
Israel has dramatically expanded its target set in recent days. The IDF confirmed it struck the Isfahan City Law Enforcement Command headquarters on March 9, while also launching what it called a “broad wave of strikes” against Iranian infrastructure, including — for the first time — oil storage depots and refining facilities.
The expansion to energy infrastructure marks a significant escalation that directly affects civilian life in Iran.
Simultaneously, Israel has pressed its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, conducting over 600 strikes using 820 munitions since the war began. Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed 486 people, including at least 83 children, since March 2, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.
The IDF stated it has conducted over 100 strikes in Lebanon in the past 24 hours alone.
What Happens Next?
As the war enters its second full week, several critical questions remain unanswered:
Can the U.S. achieve its objectives from the air alone? The campaign has relied exclusively on airstrikes, cruise missiles, and naval power. No ground troops have been deployed inside Iran, but the question of whether air power alone can achieve regime change — or even lasting military degradation — remains hotly debated.
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz? Tehran’s threat to block oil shipments represents the single most dangerous escalatory step possible. A blockade would send oil prices skyrocketing well beyond $100 per barrel and could trigger a global recession.
How long can Iran absorb punishment? Iran has fired over 500 ballistic missiles in response to the strikes, but its air force and navy have been effectively destroyed. The question is whether the Revolutionary Guards can sustain asymmetric attacks through proxies and missile barrages.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei negotiate? The selection of a hardliner as supreme leader suggests Iran’s security establishment has no intention of backing down. Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender makes diplomatic off-ramps nearly impossible.
The war that began with the killing of Iran’s supreme leader has now produced a new one — and by all indications, the fighting is far from over.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as the situation evolves.