A War Machine Running Low on Ammunition
Fifteen days into Operation Epic Fury, the United States faces a problem that no amount of firepower can solve overnight: it’s running out of the weapons needed to sustain the campaign.
Pentagon insiders have revealed that the war on Iran has burned through years’ worth of critical munitions stockpiles at a pace that has alarmed defense planners. According to estimates from the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), the US and Israel have already carried out more than 2,000 strikes — each involving multiple munitions — since the campaign began on February 28.
The scale of the air campaign is staggering. B-2 stealth bombers have been delivering long-range strikes deep into Iranian territory, targeting not just current military capabilities but the regime’s ability to rebuild. Tomahawk cruise missiles, precision-guided bombs, and interceptor missiles have all been consumed at rates that defense analysts say are unsustainable without a dramatic ramp-up in production.
“The U.S. was already working toward replenishing stockpiles before the February 28 start of the war,” PolitiFact reported, noting that years of supplying Ukraine and Israel had already drawn down reserves. Now, with Iran proving far more resilient than initial projections suggested, the ammunition math is getting uncomfortable.
Iran Buries Shamkhani, Vows Escalation
As Washington grapples with logistics, Tehran is burying its dead — and promising vengeance.
On Saturday, March 14, the funeral of Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Defense Council and a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, took place at the courtyard of the Imamzadeh Saleh shrine in Tehran. Shamkhani was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike earlier in the campaign, part of the broader effort to decapitate Iran’s military and political leadership.
His death follows the assassination of the previous Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, which was confirmed by the Iranian government on March 1. The killing of the elder Khamenei triggered the rapid succession of his son Mojtaba — a move the Iranian opposition has called a “dynastic succession” that highlights the deep crisis of clerical power.
Maryam Rajavi, the president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), stated that the regime had “placed the leader’s son on the throne” in a desperate attempt to save a system that has lost all legitimacy.
But legitimacy or not, Iran’s military continues to fight. Tehran’s government has vowed to step up retaliation against US and allied forces, and its actions back up the rhetoric.
Tehran Accuses US of Attacking From UAE Bases
In a significant escalation of the diplomatic crisis, Tehran has formally accused the United States of launching attacks against Iran from bases in the United Arab Emirates — a claim that, if acted upon, could dramatically widen the war.
The Iranian military issued a statement warning that oil and energy infrastructure belonging to firms that cooperated with the US would “immediately be destroyed.” This threat is not idle: Iran has already launched projectiles targeting civilian and oil infrastructure in the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.
Bahrain alone has intercepted 125 missiles and 203 drones since the start of Iranian attacks, according to authorities in the Gulf kingdom. The UAE’s missile defense systems have intercepted 241 of 262 ballistic missiles as of March 10 — an interception rate of 92 percent — but the two missiles that did get through hit UAE territory, and debris from intercepted drones has struck oil facilities.
The widening of Iranian attacks to Gulf states has created a cascading security crisis across the region. The Fujairah oil hub has already been hit, and Iran has threatened to strike ports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
The Strait of Hormuz Stalemate
Perhaps the most strategically consequential development is Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which as much as 20 million barrels of oil per day normally flows.
President Trump has renewed his call for allied nations to send warships to help secure the strait. “Many countries” would be sending vessels, Trump claimed on social media Saturday. But when pressed by NBC News on whether the US Navy would escort commercial shipping, he was evasive: “I don’t want to tell you anything about that. It’s possible.”
The hesitation speaks volumes. Iranian mines in the strait remain a serious threat. CENTCOM reported on March 10 that US forces had destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz, but the mining campaign continues, and clearing a shipping lane through mined waters under fire is one of the most dangerous naval operations imaginable.
Oil prices have surged as a result. The near-closure of Hormuz has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, with the Trump administration releasing 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an attempt to stabilize prices. So far, it hasn’t been enough.
The Military Scorecard: Iran Is Degraded But Not Defeated
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has painted an optimistic picture of the campaign’s progress. “Their missile volume is down 90%. Their one-way attack drones, yesterday, down 95%,” Hegseth declared on March 13, adding that Operation Epic Fury is still “ramping up.”
The numbers are real. Iran’s retaliatory capabilities have been dramatically diminished since the opening days of the war. The combined US-Israeli force has targeted nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan; destroyed naval assets; struck IRGC headquarters in Tehran; and systematically degraded Iran’s air defense network.
But “degraded” is not “defeated.” Iran’s proxy network remains active. Hezbollah has claimed 27 attacks targeting IDF forces in northern Israel. Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia, struck the US Embassy compound in Baghdad on Saturday, hitting a radar installation in the heavily guarded Green Zone. It was the second time the embassy had been hit since the war began.
And Iran continues to launch missiles and drones at Gulf state targets — even if at reduced rates.
The Domestic Front: War Spills Into the US
Perhaps most alarming are growing fears that the conflict is spilling onto American soil. Two separate incidents — an attack on a synagogue in Michigan and another at a college in Virginia — are under investigation as potential acts of terrorism linked to the Iran war.
The FBI has not confirmed a direct connection to Tehran, but the timing has heightened security alerts across the country. The US Embassy in Baghdad has again urged all American citizens to leave Iraq immediately.
What Comes Next
As the war enters its third week, the fundamental question remains: what does victory look like?
The White House has outlined four objectives for Operation Epic Fury: prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, destroy its missile arsenal and production sites, degrade its proxy networks, and ensure Iran can never rebuild its military threat.
Those are ambitious goals — and as TIME Magazine noted this week, data from the Correlates of War project shows that most interstate wars over the past two centuries have lasted less than four to five months. Trump labeled the initial June 2025 exchange as a “12-day war,” but this second round shows no signs of wrapping up that quickly.
With munitions stocks dwindling, Iran’s proxies still active, the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, and the conflict threatening to engulf the entire Gulf region, Day 15 of Operation Epic Fury marks not the beginning of the end — but perhaps the end of the beginning.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates as the situation evolves.